View from Washington
By severely weakening Hamas, its Hezbollah allies in Lebanon and its supporters in Iran, Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have a rare opportunity to turn the country’s military successes into long-term diplomatic deals, former officials say. “This is a test of Israeli leadership,” Bruce Riedel, a former CIA and national security official who covered the Middle East, told the network. “This is an opportunity for Israel to declare victory and agree to a ceasefire. A ceasefire in Gaza could lead to a reduction in regional tensions,” he added.
Sinwar has been on Israel’s radar since Hamas stormed Israel’s southern border on October 7, 2023, in a surprise attack that killed about 1,200 Israelis, most of them civilians. More than 200 people were taken hostage. After a year of searching, including with the help of American intelligence agencies, Israeli troops found him during a routine patrol, Israeli officials said.
Biden administration officials viewed Sinwar as uncompromising and ruthless. During months of indirect negotiations over an elusive hostage release deal and a ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, Sinwar was often seen as an obstacle to the release of hostages whose holding he considered his greatest asset, according to current U.S. officials and previous.
“The Biden administration has generally concluded that as long as Sinwar is in Gaza, there is no way to reach a hostage deal,” said Dennis Ross, who shaped Middle East policy under three presidents. A ceasefire, the return of hostages and even an IDF withdrawal from Gaza may now be “within reach,” former officials say. According to Ross, now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Hamas’s military losses, the destruction of much of its tunnel network and the death of its former leader in Gaza could give life to proposals for a new mechanism. politician to govern. the Gaza Strip and the deployment of a multinational peacekeeping force that would allow the departure of Israeli troops. “Perhaps this is the moment when the Biden administration wants to try to act in this direction,” the expert added.
After confirming Sinwar’s death, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the Biden administration plans to renew efforts with allies and partners to end the war in Gaza and “chart a new path forward.” “In the coming days, the United States will redouble our efforts with our partners to end this conflict, secure the release of all hostages, and chart a new path that allows Gazans to rebuild their lives and realize their aspirations, free of the war and the threats of Hamas. brutal grip,” he said.
Hamas has not commented on the death of Sinwar, who replaced Ismail Haniyeh as the group’s leader after his assassination by Israel in July.
A view from the Middle East
Middle East political and military analyst Elijah Manier said the Israeli and American characterization of the alleged assassination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is far from reality. “This is not an intelligence operation or a targeted killing,” Manier told Al Jazeera. “It was a confrontation between three people, three militants, who were in a certain place and opened fire on the soldiers who invaded Rafah,” Manye said. Israeli forces “opened fire from their tank, destroying the place, so the next day they found Sinwar with another commander in an above-ground house, not in the tunnels,” he said. “Everyone is singing victory… but that has nothing to do with the reality of events on the ground,” he added.
Roxana Farmanfarmayan, a professor of Middle East international relations at the University of Cambridge, told the television station that some of the potential leaders who could take Yahya Sinwar’s place take a “harder line” than him. Others include more pragmatic figures like Khaled Meshal, former head of Hamas’s political department, who Farmanfarmayan says is more of an “expert negotiator.”
Finally, Phyllis Bennis, well-known Middle East writer and analyst, researcher at the Institute of Policy Studies and international advisor to Jewish Voice for Peace, told Al Jazeera that the assassination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar will not lead to a ceasefire. . in Gaza.
“There has always been a path to a ceasefire, and it begins with the United States stopping the supply of weapons that allow the war to continue,” Bennis said. “I don’t think there will be any change if Blinken goes to the region or if Biden calls Netanyahu. None of that really matters. His words don’t matter if his actions don’t change and if those actions continue sending Israel has all the weapons it needs to to allow this war, this genocide, to continue,” Bennis added. “There is no reason in the world for them to consider the death of another Hamas leader, this time Yahya Sinwar, a change. The war was fought against the entire population of Gaza, and not against a single person,” the expert concluded.
