Scientists, however hard they try, cannot predict an upcoming earthquake or name with high probability the day of a volcanic eruption. But forecasts of solar activity and, as a result, magnetic disturbances on Earth have become commonplace.
Moreover, weather-dependent people are much more demanding of it than of regular weather reports. And when a false alarm or false start occurs, the most emotional ones vent their feelings on social media and in the comments to unconfirmed media horror stories…
That’s how it was yesterday, the day before yesterday, and it will probably be that way tomorrow.
“The plasma cloud that was ejected from the Sun on September 7 and caused much discussion in the press in connection with its possible impact on Earth, apparently passed within several degrees of the planet,” this explanation appeared retroactively on the website of the Solar Astronomy Laboratory, which was and remains a joint creation of the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow) and the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences located in Irkutsk.
The press, or, let us say more broadly, the media, exists to monitor and discuss the news agenda. Criticise here, don’t criticise, it will be no different. But questions inevitably arise for those who create news, from whom the hot bread comes in a scientific framework.
The example of solar flares may not be the most illustrative, but it is the most recent and concerns a huge number of people who are not used to delving into subjects that are far from them and who take faith in what others say.
I spent some time and watched how the above events were presented and intensified, mind you, not by journalists, but by employees of a scientific organization, on the official website of the same Solar Astronomy Laboratory. Here are the titles of four consecutive messages.
September 9: “The Earth will have to withstand two solar impacts in a row: two plasma clouds are moving towards the planet.” September 10: “Conflicting information is received about yesterday’s plasma emission.” “I missed the planet by several degrees.” And the same day, a few hours later: “The Sun will still hit the Earth on the third attempt.”… What is the final result? We are waiting again, now until midnight, September 12-13.
To make it even more convincing, the same website contains a video with an animated model of how an imaginary cloud of solar plasma moves towards Earth.
In the short title of the video, don’t be surprised, there is this explanation: “The image on the left is a top view of the plane of the planets. The Earth is a green dot. The remaining 2 dots are STEREO spacecraft. The image on the right is a side view of the Earth…”
And then there is the summary sentence: “In all projections, the blow is central without the possibility of avoiding it.”
That’s all, nothing more, nothing less. Although the day before, on the website of the same laboratory it was written in black and white (that’s their design): “None of the spacecraft that took measurements on the Sun-Earth line registered jumps in the parameters that, even with some at one stretch, could be interpreted as the arrival of fragments of solar matter.”
And to substantiate the new forecast that the impact will be “central” and that “there is no chance of avoiding it”, the following passage is offered: “We have received modelling results of the third plasma emission that has occurred in recent days, which still has a 99.9% chance of hitting the planet this time. Although the models used have been partially discredited by an incorrect forecast of yesterday’s events, this time they simply have no chance of being wrong. The previous ejection passed by the Earth and should have hit the planet only by the edge. In such a situation, it turned out to be sufficient to underestimate the angular dimensions of the cloud by only 5 to 10 degrees, so the forecast turns out to be completely wrong…”
Okay, this is a bit reminiscent of the old parable of the boy who cried “Wolf!” over and over again, and then they stopped believing him…
It is necessary to talk about science, about experiments and observations carried out in various fields by academic research institutes, universities and other research groups. And tell about it as vividly and figuratively as possible, with illustrations and examples. For this purpose, universities and academic institutes under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Education and Science, state scientific centers and individual laboratories acquired their own public relations departments, information services, rewriters…
For many years, the “Science Festival” has been held with the same noble goal, and more recently the “Knowledge Marathon” and the “Decade of Science and Technology” have been held in different regions of Russia. Prestigious awards have been created, both for scientists and for them in their role as science popularizers.
But there was and still is a limit: that line that cannot be erased. Scientific knowledge must live and develop according to the laws of science. And not become a product that can be clicked on in the overheated space of media and social networks.
