The economic consequences of external shocks (the 2008 crisis, sanctions after the annexation of Crimea, losses from the pandemic, and trade barriers to traditional exports due to the start of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization) are fundamentally different from cyclical crises, which update the structure of production and technology and contribute to the acceleration of economic growth. And each region of the country reacts to such stress in its own way. This trend was noticed by scientists from the Higher School of Economics and Management of SUSU, who developed a special methodology based on artificial intelligence and analytical software that allows statistical analysis of business data. In this software, scientists integrated the characteristics of the regions at the beginning of the crises of 2002 and 2014-2015 and then analyzed their experience of overcoming stressful events. The researchers note that the methodology is applicable to all regions of Russia, which means that it will help solve many problems of state regulation of the economy.
The low sustainability of the Sverdlovsk region is associated with the dependence of manufacturing industries on exports and a high proportion of innovative goods, the production of which depends on the import of components.
– The research base included 82 subjects from the country and their experience of adaptation to external crises. We recorded 314 stressful events, of which 60 were associated with the situation in 2008 (caused by natural market processes) and 47 were caused by the events of 2014-2015, when there was a strong impact of artificial restrictions, for example, sanctions and counter-sanctions, commented on the development, associate professor of the Department of Industrial Economics and Project Management Natalia Pravdina.
On the other hand, economists focused on industrial territories with a narrow focus on production: the study allows to judge the general causes of instability in such important regions as Krasnoyarsk Territory, Sverdlovsk, Murmansk, Lipetsk, Vologda and Chelyabinsk. The developers of the stress test model note that when differentiating shock events, regions can be conditionally divided into two blocks: those with a “shock-proof” and “non-shock-proof” economic response to stress. The first group includes those constituent entities of the Russian Federation where the period of constant decline in industrial production does not exceed the average value of 18 months and the economic recovery is already observed the following year.
Using a new modelling method, scientists were able to determine which factors influence a region’s stress resistance and “shock resistance”: the uniqueness of regional conditions, the location of innovative products, and residents employed in manufacturing industries.
– According to the results of the analysis of the regions of the Ural Federal District, the greatest “impact resistance” is characteristic of the economy of the Tyumen region (80 percent), followed by the Chelyabinsk (58.5) and Kurgan (52.6) regions, and the lowest indicator is found in the Sverdlovsk region (22.8 percent) ). These results are based on an analysis of the share of employees in the manufacturing industry, exports of such industries, the share of innovative goods and products of high-tech activities, the features of the location of labor and production resources, the density of transport infrastructure, explains Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Theory, Regional Economics, State and Municipal Administration ” Alexander Rezepin.
Moreover, analysts are inclined to believe that there are ideal values of parameters that can ensure unconditional sustainability of regional development – that very “shock resistance”. Comparing the economies of the Chelyabinsk and Sverdlovsk regions, it can be assumed that the lower stability of the latter is associated with a greater dependence of manufacturing industries on exports and a high share of innovative goods, the production of which, in turn, largely depends on the import of components and technologies. Thus, researchers came to the conclusion that factors that contribute to economic growth and development under normal conditions create additional risks in conditions of turbulence and increasing sanctions pressure.
