An increase in recycling fees is the top news from the auto industry in October. In 2012, the recycling fee was introduced to compensate for the loss of customs payments due to Russia’s accession to the WTO. At first, the monetary equivalent of these duties was at a completely acceptable level: 20,000 rubles for cars and 150,000 for trucks.
What we have right now – a rate increase of between 70% and 85% (depending on vehicle category, age and engine size) – aims to solve two problems today. First of all, support the Russian automobile industry. Secondly, introducing a barrier fee to facilitate the activities of official distributors in the Russian Federation. What could this lead to?
The fact is that official representatives of Chinese brands have long noticed that their cars, imported into Russia in accordance with all the rules, with certification and obtaining OTTS, in the end turned out to be more expensive than similar models from other sellers. . Furthermore, the price difference was sometimes significant. Thus, some “premium” hybrids from some sellers were between 1.5 and 2 million cheaper than those from the dealer. In the affordable segment, the gap was less noticeable – 200-300 thousand rubles, but for customers with a limited budget this could be noticeable.
After indexation, the price in the most popular segment of passenger cars (with internal combustion engines with a displacement of up to 2 liters) increased from 300,600 rubles to 556,200 rubles. And by 2030, the recycling rate in this class will already amount to 1,172,400 rubles. Coupled with the Central Bank’s key rate, which continues to rise, these measures will likely have certain consequences: demand will decrease as financial instruments, including leasing, will become less accessible. Furthermore, the new levels of scrap collection may force some newcomer car brands to reduce their activities in Russia, most likely those whose sales peaks are outside the top ten.
There is a common opinion that Chinese companies make excessive profits in Russia, since the same models are 2-2.5 times more expensive on the Russian market than in China. However, few people realize that logistics alone, due to the pressure of external factors, can account for up to 50% of the final price of a car, especially in the affordable segment of up to 3 million rubles. . Do not forget about the costs of certification, adaptation to our climate and many other costs, which sometimes lead to a multiple increase in the final cost.
In this context, the increase in recycling rates caused an even more serious increase in the price of all new cars imported for sale.
Will it be possible to encourage foreign companies to invest in localizing production in Russia? At the moment, only Great Wall/Haval has large-scale production in the Russian Federation, while other major players have not announced plans to develop large-scale assembly in Russia, limiting themselves to the supply of small batches of vehicle kits for new brands. invented in 2023 and after.
As a result, the automobile market is now confidently heading into another recession. 2025 could be a difficult year for both low-volume auto brands and many dealers. The rise in new car prices is currently being held back by inventories built up by suppliers in recent months, but these will run out by the end of the year.
At the same time, market recovery over time is also inevitable. While a considerable portion of customers wait for the official interest rate to fall, substantial pent-up demand will build up, sooner or later leading to increased activity again.
The conclusion of all these theses is the same: if you need a car or a truck, you better hurry up and buy it.
