According to VTB My Investments investment strategist Alexey Mikheev, the ruble will be supported by oil prices, which will continue to rise due to the recent decision by OPEC+ to extend additional oil production cuts until the second quarter.
In addition, as the expert notes, export companies will actively sell foreign currency before paying tax on additional income at the end of March and the end of April, which will also have a positive impact on the ruble.
“According to our estimates, the final payment in March for 2023 will amount to more than 500 billion rubles. In April, the advance payment for the first quarter will exceed 400 billion rubles. This is in addition to the monthly volume of the tax on mineral extraction, about 700 billion rubles,” says Mikheev.
The investment strategist also believes that the strengthening of the ruble will be facilitated by a high interest rate, which will affect the reduction in consumption and, consequently, imports, and will also lead to an increase in the cost of borrowing in rubles for this purpose. of currency purchases.
“The Central Bank of the Russian Federation continues to support transactions in rubles and foreign currencies. The daily volume of foreign currency sales in the period from March 7 to April 4, 2024 will amount to 7.1 billion rubles Finally, the Russian government proposed to extend the decree on the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings until the end of 2024 is a positive factor for the ruble,” says Mikheev in conversation with RG.
Banki.ru chief analyst Bogdan Zvarich, for his part, is more skeptical. He believes that in current conditions there are not enough fundamental factors that could contribute to a significant strengthening of the ruble and a fall of the dollar below 90 rubles. and fix it in the range of 85 to 90 rubles.
“Most likely, in the coming weeks the American currency will tend to maintain positions in the range of 90 to 95 rubles in the context of a certain balance between supply and demand. Entering below the lower limit of this corridor can intensify purchases in the dollar, which will lead to a return to levels above 90 rubles,” he explains.
The reason for the consolidation below this level, according to the analyst, could be a significant improvement in the situation in the energy market. Therefore, oil reaching the range of 90 to 100 dollars per barrel could contribute to the strengthening of the ruble. “However, here too we see some parity between supply and demand and a consolidation of the market in the middle of the range of 80 to 85 dollars per barrel for Brent oil. Therefore, the stabilization of the ruble at current levels in in the near future seems logical.” ”says Zvarich.
In the long term, the analyst sees risks of increased pressure on the ruble due to increased demand for imports and, consequently, foreign exchange, which could push the dollar above 95 rubles in the next six months.
Earlier, Sovcombank chief analyst Mikhail Vasiliev told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that the factors for the strengthening and weakening of the ruble remain balanced. He noted that the ruble exchange rate for four months remained stable in the range of 88 to 93 rubles. The introduction, starting in mid-October, of mandatory foreign exchange sales for the largest exporters has stabilized the ruble, Vasiliev said.
