There are regions in the Far Eastern Federal District where, within the framework of the Far Eastern Mortgage, housing can be purchased not only on the primary market, but also on the secondary market: this is the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug and the region of Magadan. For this reason, the secondary real estate market in these regions is unlikely to decline. But it is not particularly developed there.
In the Amur region, for comparison, housing is actively being built and put into operation. I believe that the extension of the terms of the Far East Mortgage will encourage developers to match the new price. The condition is as follows: nine million are issued for an area of at least 60 square meters. Consequently, it turns out about 150 thousand rubles per square meter. Most likely, companies building small two- and three-bedroom apartments will begin to raise their prices until they reach this benchmark. Therefore, for those who plan to take out a Far Eastern mortgage, it would be more rational not to postpone it until prices rise.
Most likely, by spring, if there are no global changes, the secondary market will begin to move downward.
Now about the secondary market. Last year can be characterized as follows: the first half of the year went as usual, and starting in July the key exchange rate began to change against the background of an increase in the dollar exchange rate – from 7.5 percent to 16 percent. This directly affects the situation. . Banks give loans to people at 18 or even 20 percent per annum. Under such conditions, no reasonable person would take out a mortgage for 26 years; Today, this is the average term. If you multiply it, you get a very bad number. For example, one buyer purchased a one-bedroom apartment in Blagoveshchensk for six million rubles at 20 percent interest for 20 years. The payment for the apartment is 1.2 million a year. It turns out that the apartment will cost him 24 million, four times what it originally cost.
Russians are accustomed to reacting appropriately to mortgage rates, preferring the so-called single-digit ones, up to 10 percent. After this mark, the number of people who want to get a mortgage always decreases. Consequently, the expectation for the secondary market is that it will soon begin to freeze.
It is clear that these changes will not happen in one or two days. Prices are set for now. For a month, maybe two, there won’t be much movement. Most likely, by spring, if there are no global changes, the secondary market will begin to move downward. Because mortgages satisfy the demand for 80 percent of real estate. Imagine if half of this number were eliminated because of the stakes. Of course, banks may stipulate in contracts the conditions for refinancing or reducing payments as the key rate falls, but no one will give guarantees about this.
In addition, starting January 1, the Central Bank’s internal recommendations for financial institutions issuing mortgages will become stricter. In professional terms, macroprudential ratios will increase. This means that even if mortgage requirements do not formally change, it will be more difficult to obtain a loan.
Since the secondary market will decline, those who need to sell real estate for personal reasons will likely have to compromise on price. And people who plan to buy a house in cash will wait until the so-called bottom – the period when apartment prices will drop as much as possible.
Russians are accustomed to reacting appropriately to mortgage rates, preferring the so-called “single-digit” rates, up to 10 percent.
It is worth remembering that during the period of two crises, 2008-2009 and 2014-2015, the price of housing in the secondary market fell significantly. But this did not happen immediately; The process lasted about two years. Those who had the opportunity to retain money were eventually able to afford a three-bedroom apartment instead of a two-bedroom. But not everyone can do this; It is advisable to understand the market and analyze the situation.
Therefore, if you want to sell an apartment on the secondary market in order to later buy another secondary market, then it is better to sell the property as soon as possible. Now there are still old pre-approved mortgages left – one of their recipients can become their buyer. Normally, after the New Year there is the traditional drop in demand due to the January holidays. The most active months in the real estate market are from March to May and from September to December. There will probably be some kind of change this time: people with loans approved at 12-13 percent will look for options in both January and February. But between February and March the secondary market will come to a standstill.
