Previously, the Ministry of Economy gave the same assessment in the September version of its macro forecast. In April, the department expected a dollar at 94.7 rubles. on average for the year, but later revised his estimate. Analysts surveyed by the Central Bank, on the contrary, were previously more optimistic and in September predicted the price of the dollar at 90.4 rubles.
Since the ruble was stronger for most of the year, the forecast was 91.2 rubles. per dollar on average for the year, an exchange rate in October-December 2024 of 94.2 rubles is assumed. per dollar, said the Central Bank. For its part, the Department of Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting of the Ministry of Economic Development expects that the dollar exchange rate at the end of 2024 will be 93.8 rubles.
According to the updated macro forecast of the Bank of Russia, in 2025 the dollar will cost an average of 95 rubles. (previously they expected 94.4 rubles), and in 2026, 97.5 rubles. The Minek gives different figures: 96.5 rubles. per dollar in 2025 and 100 rubles. in 2026.
The forecast of 91.2 rubles per dollar on average for the year assumes an exchange rate in October-December of approximately 94.2 rubles.
The expectations of analysts surveyed by the Central Bank for inflation for the current year also increased (from 7.3% to 7.7%), as well as for the growth of the GDP of the Russian Federation, from 3.6 % to 3.7%. In addition, they raised the forecast for the average key rate for 2024 to 17.3% from 17.1%, for 2025 – to 18% from 16.1%, for 2026 – to 12.5% from 11.5 %.
Tighter estimates by inflation analysts may affect the decisions of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank on the key rate. Most of the data received incline them to a decisive reaction and make it more likely that they will increase from 19% to 21% at the next meeting on October 25, VTB group chief economist Rodion Latypov told Rossiyskaya Gazeta.
“First of all, the current inflation rate in September reached 9.8% in annualized terms. According to the characteristics of the Central Bank, the current rate on sustainable components is “very high.” Secondly, in October the inflation expectations of the population increased to local highs of 13. The inflation expectations of companies have also increased. Thirdly, it became known that the budget deficit this year will be higher by 1.5 trillion rubles, and tariffs for housing and communal services will be indexed by 11.9% in 2025, according to the consensus inflation forecast for the next. year is 5.3%, which means risks for achieving the Central Bank’s objective, which plans to return the price growth rate to 4% in 2025,” the expert listed.
The Central Bank’s new macro forecast indicates faster wage growth in 2024 (17.2% compared to 16% in September), as well as even lower unemployment: 2.5% compared to 2.6%. At the same time, analysts expect slightly cheaper oil: $81 per barrel for Brent versus $82 in the September version of the forecast.
Throughout September, the ruble weakened against foreign currencies and, as a result, according to the Central Bank, it lost 1.7% against the dollar and 9.9% against the yuan. In August, due to the Russian market’s adjustment to external restrictions, there was an abnormal divergence in dollar-yuan cross rates within Russia and abroad, but now this differential has decreased from 10% to 1%. The spread between the purchase and sale of currency in cash in September also decreased and at the end of the month it amounted to 2.45 rubles. per US dollar and 2.72 rubles. per euro.
