Viktor Orban and Vladimir Zelensky in negotiations in kyiv.
Photo: REUTERS.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose country became the rotating president of the EU Council yesterday, made a quick visit to kyiv. His trip was announced literally the day before, and even then with reservations: “if it happens.” Everyone was wondering what Orban would discuss with Zelensky. Although they did not particularly hide it in Budapest, they identified two topics: resolving issues of ensuring the rights of ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine and discussing a peaceful solution to the Ukrainian conflict.
After the negotiations in kyiv, Orban revealed the intrigue. Noting that achieving peace is a very difficult and long process, he called on Zelensky to agree to a ceasefire as a step towards speeding up negotiations. He stressed that the issue of peace in Ukraine will be the main one for Budapest in the next six months of its EU presidency.
Two questions immediately arise here. First: the possibility of peace according to the “Zelensky formula”, albeit reduced, has only just been discussed at the “peace summit” in Switzerland, where Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó participated and signed the final declaration. It is obvious: there is simply no progress in the proposals for a possible world that is worth urgently discussing. Russia’s proposals were recently formulated by President Vladimir Putin, but the West unanimously rejected them. And Moscow, naturally, calls the “Zelensky formula” nothing more than nonsense. What is there to talk about?
But in recent days, there has been talk in kyiv that they are working intensively on a “new peace formula” that will be proposed for approval by the majority of the international community. And here it turns out that Orban is poking Zelensky on the elbow? And the Ukrainian leaders have always acted according to the principle of “don’t teach me how to live”…
It is true that Zelensky has outlined a new approach in recent days: negotiations not with Moscow, but with a third mediating country, as was the case with the “grain deal.” In any case, Hungary as a mediator is clearly inferior not only to China, which announced that it is already preparing peace negotiations with the participation of all interested parties, but also to Turkey and the Vatican.
However, Orban explained: he, as interim president of the European Union, has a motive: Europe must prepare for the fact that sooner or later the United States and Russia will begin negotiations on a settlement in Ukraine and will determine “where their place is in this distribution, who represents their interests and what they are.” Hungary, said its prime minister, cannot answer these questions, it does not lead Europe and cannot make decisions instead of Germany, France and Italy. What she can do as president of the EU is to put a possible solution on the table. So, not out of self-interest, but at the will of the European Union that sent me…
Victor Orban
Photo: REUTERS.
The second question also immediately seems very controversial. What kind of truce can we talk about if Moscow has repeatedly stated that during negotiations, if they begin, Russia will not end hostilities? Enough already, we have already stopped once when we tried to reach an agreement in Istanbul. And they received a provocation in Bucha as “proof of the Russians’ betrayal.” And Zelensky has repeatedly stated that he does not want to conclude truces, even during the Paris Olympics. In a word, the Hungarian prime minister’s ceasefire proposal is very similar to kindness, which cannot be used to stop a military conflict.
Yet even here Orban does not seem like a hopeless projector. If only because Hungary consistently advocated a diplomatic solution throughout the conflict, did not participate in arms supplies to Ukraine, and repeatedly blocked EU decisions on collective assistance to Kiev, believing that by doing so Europe was only inflaming the conflict. What he did exactly by identifying the issue of peace negotiations in Kiev as a priority and the ceasefire as a step towards such negotiations was to at least slightly shift the strict emphasis of the new European Union leaders on “victory over Russia on the battlefield” towards a more realistic search for a solution that takes into account the interests of all parties.
Did Moscow know in advance about Orban’s intention to meet with Zelensky? After all, Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó was recently in Russia at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, so perhaps he hinted at something?
Russian President’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov clearly stated that the Kremlin does not expect anything from the Hungarian Prime Minister’s visit to kyiv, and Vladimir Putin had no contact with Viktor Orban the day before. The answer is clear and certain: our proposals have been made; the next ones, taking into account the situation “on the ground”, may be tougher. So the ball is in their court, let them process it.
PS Deputy head of the Zelensky administration Igor Zhovkva finally said: Ukraine does not intend to consider Orban’s proposal “in isolation from other aspects of the agreement” (i.e. his delusional scenario with summits, the “Zelensky plan”, etc.).
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