Judging by opinion polls and expert comments, Macron’s bid to form a new majority will not work.
Photo: REUTERS.
On Sunday, June 30, the first round of early parliamentary elections will take place in France. Judging by opinion polls and expert comments, Macron’s bid to form a new majority will not work. The National Rally party remains the dominant force by a decent margin, as in the European Parliament elections. If they win, the far right will be able to form a government and appoint their own prime minister to counter Macron. Jordan Bardella, 28, aspires to this position. Marine Le Pen has already stated that in this situation, France will not send troops to Ukraine or supply long-range missiles to kyiv.
“The head of the armed forces is just an honorific title for the president, since it is the prime minister who holds the portfolio,” Le Pen said in an interview with Le Telegramme newspaper. “Jordan has no intention of starting a fight, but. He has drawn red lines. “The president will not be able to send troops to Ukraine.” The head of the National Rally, Jordan Bardella, opposes the sending of French soldiers to the Northern Military District area and the supply of long-range missiles. to kyiv, considering this a step towards escalating the conflict. However, the politician has repeatedly expressed words of support for Ukraine and denied his party’s ties with Russia and called for postponing the issue of France’s withdrawal from NATO (this point was up to him). Marine Le Pen’s presidential program for 2022, but it was recently removed from the party’s website.—Ed.) Bardella’s position is simple: provide support to the extent that it does not go against the national interests of the French. The politician asked for the sending of troops. to a country torn by a military conflict as a “red line.”
The extreme right warns that it will use the budget as leverage over the French president’s powers in defense and international politics, the traditional domain of the head of the republic.
Following accusations by Macronists of disrespect for the Constitution, Le Pen clarified her position: “Without questioning the authority vested in the president to send troops abroad, the prime minister has the opportunity to oppose this through budgetary control.”
In basic French legislation there is room for interpretation. On the one hand, article 15 of the Constitution establishes that “The President of the Republic is the head of the army.” Furthermore, under Article 21, the Prime Minister directs the actions of the government, including responsibility for national defense. Given the dominance of the “National Union” in the National Assembly, deputies can block any new spending on defense and support for Ukraine.
Macron’s disagreements with the far-right prime minister are not limited to Ukraine. As Bardella stated, the first issue in which the National Group intends to intervene if it wins is the appointment of the European Commissioners. In Brussels itself, fears are already growing that the results of the French elections could sabotage the political course of the EU.
At the same time, it is not clear whether the young politician, who previously stated that he would not be an “assistant to the president” and was only willing to govern with an absolute majority, would accept the post of prime minister. Some experts believe Bardella could refuse to run without an absolute majority so as not to tarnish his reputation during this chaotic period in charge.
British journalist John Lichfield, who worked in Paris for 20 years, writes in a column for POLITICO that the upcoming elections “could be the most destructive since the war, not only for France, but also for the European Union, NATO and what what remains of the postwar liberal world order.” In his opinion, France’s leadership position in the EU, its place on the UN Security Council and its military influence as a world power make these elections almost as “global” as the duel between Biden and Trump. in United States.
“These elections can mark the elimination of Macronism,” Litchfield intensifies. “This will lead France, Europe and the entire world to the destruction of Western values and alliances that Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping may have only dreamed of.”
The head of the French Interior Ministry, Gerald Darmanin, citing intelligence reports, said his department is preparing for possible unrest on the voting days of June 30 and especially July 7. Meanwhile, the mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, accused Macron of ruining the Olympic Games with his decision to hold early elections: “The Olympic Games are a meeting of humanity around sport, in brotherhood, it is a charge of positivity in the period we are going through. Why ruin this wonderful moment with a choice that was decided at the last minute without consulting anyone?
What the polls say
Judging by the dynamics of opinion polls, no political force in France will obtain an absolute majority (289 of 577 seats in parliament) after the results of two rounds. Macron’s gamble did not work: during the election campaign, his supporters failed to improve their ratings, and horror stories about the far-right and far-left that would plunge France into chaos did not reduce his fan base. . In this case, the National Assembly risks being plunged into even greater chaos and infighting than under the fragile presidential majority of the last two years.
The latest study by the Ipsos Institute commissioned by the French media shows the following figures. First of all, there is a notable increase in participation: between 61% and 65% of French people plan to vote in the first round, significantly more than in the 2022 elections (47.5%).
The candidates of the National Rally continue to have a significant advantage and obtain 32% of the votes, a figure close to that of the European elections (31.4%). To this forecast we must add around 4%, which can be won by a part of the “Republicans”, led by Eric Sciotti, who agreed to an alliance with the extreme right. Together they compete for 36% of the seats in the lower house, double the result of Le Pen’s party in 2022, of 18.7%.
The leftist forces, united in the “New Popular Front”, are actually hot on their heels: 29% of French people are willing to support them. At the same time, the left-wing union still cannot agree on a possible candidate for prime minister.
The presidential coalition “Together”, formed by Macron’s “Renaissance” party and its closest centrist allies (MoDem, Horizons), according to the most optimistic estimates, only receives 20% of the votes. They can also be joined by the divided “Republicans” who did not support the idea of an alliance with the extreme right, but this will not add up to more than 8% of the votes.
In this situation, parliament will be divided into three opposing blocs and the current presidential majority will be trapped between its bitter rivals. If nothing changes dramatically, no force will have enough weight to pursue an independent policy, meaning France risks plunging into a full-scale political crisis with an unpredictable end.
It is worth noting that, due to the complexity of the French electoral system, it is still difficult to make clear predictions. The country is divided into 577 electoral districts according to the number of seats in the lower house. Specific single-mandate candidates from the parties will compete in each individual district, so much depends on the personal recognition and charisma of the candidates, and not just the party’s rating. Depending on the results of the first round, 2 or 3 of the strongest candidates from each district will advance to the next stage. To do this, they need to exceed a threshold of 12.5% of the number of registered voters. If one of them manages to obtain more than 50% of the votes, then victory will be granted in the first round, but it is an unlikely option, given the current situation. The main fight will take place on July 7 between the leaders of the first round. In the week between these stages, the parties will have time to negotiate over specific electoral districts: eliminate candidates, call votes for one of their allies or, conversely, against an unwanted candidate.
