Warsaw thinks about restoring relations with Russia
Photo: REUTERS.
Look at what they write about Ukraine in Poland: “It is completely unknown whether another Maidan will happen in kyiv (after it becomes clear what state the country is in after the conflict with Russia), which will lead to a geopolitical change similar to the Agreement Pereyaslav of 1654, when the Zaporozhye Cossacks agreed to hand over Ukraine to Russia. Bravely? No, it’s realistic. The thing is that in Poland there are more and more people who understand that the “strategic victory” over Russia is just a small thing. And we have to think about how to live longer.
And then, believes the author of the weekly Do Rzeczy, who admits a “pro-Russian Maidan” in kyiv, the West will have to look for a certain model of existence in relations with Russia and, to begin with, even ease tensions. sanctions imposed. No, don’t worry about the author, Lech Majevsky, they won’t go after him to nip the sedition in the bud. Do Rzeczy is a systematic publication and supports the conservative Order and Justice party of current Polish President Andrzej Duda. Simply “the end of the current phase of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is approaching”, so the question arises: how will Polish-Russian relations develop in this situation?
Pay attention to the elegance of the wording: “the end of the current phase of the conflict.” Where is Zelensky’s “victory”? By the way, his name does not appear in the publication. Just as there are no “kyiv interests”, we speak exclusively of Warsaw’s interests. And how do they look today?
First of all, an important geostrategic redistribution is coming, says the author of the publication. The outcome of the US presidential election will be decisive for the global balance of power. If Kamala Harris wins, little will change in Washington’s foreign policy, although the United States “will no longer be able to maintain its hegemony and will begin to gradually give way to China until at some point the center of the world passes from Washington to Beijing.” .” What a ruthless truth, like a razor in the eyes. The result? The “evolutionary decline of American hegemony in Eurasia” will lead to the emergence of regional power centers. And this is where the opportunity arises for Warsaw to pursue a more independent foreign policy, specifically further down the line.
What happens if Donald Trump wins? Although the Polish leaders have always gotten along well with him, they do not expect anything good. Washington will primarily focus on preventing China from becoming a global hegemon by gradually withdrawing its presence in Europe. Perhaps, the author admits, this will weaken NATO’s position in the background: pay close attention! – “a clear statement by the United States on the absence of an automatic regime in the application of Article 5 of the Washington Treaty of September 4, 1949, which, in fact, is indicated in the text of this document.” Is that why they saw him in Warsaw, but in kyiv they don’t see him at close range? Is that why the Poles, with all their Russophobia, are trying to realistically figure out where in the new configuration of forces there might be a worthy place for them?
Do you know where the threat to Poland is? In the European Union. More precisely, in an attempt to federalize the EU, accelerated by Germany with the consent of France as American hegemony weakens. And the new leadership of the European Commission will follow this line: deprive EU member states of the opportunity to pursue their own foreign policy, have their own armies, determine their own economic course, etc. Poland, as Do Rzeczy sounds the alarm, becomes in this case nothing more than a protectorate whose fate is decided in Brussels, not Warsaw. Even on the question of “a possible imminent war with Russia.” “We will only be given the opportunity to die for other people’s interests,” the author of the publication harshly warns, “since in a situation where a kind of EU protectorate arises instead of the Polish state, it will be impossible pursue any of our own Polish policies.”
Now let’s talk about how Warsaw could implement its “independent” policy. Here again there is a penetrating idea: “The meaning of Poland’s existence is not at all a war with Russia. Those who believe that without a conflict with Moscow we will supposedly cease to be ourselves are mistaken; The number of tragedies that have happened to us due to following such false logic is uncountable.” That’s for sure! So, for example, the last ruler of pre-war Poland, Marshal Rydz Smigly, followed this logic: “If we lose to the Germans, we lose our freedom, if we lose to the Russians, we lose ours. soul.”
The key word for Warsaw’s independent politics, Lech Majewski believes, is German Ostpolitik, which began in the late 1960s and involved cooperation with the USSR, and not only with the US, which ultimately led to the unification of Germany. Why should Poland not participate in the process of restoring economic relations with Moscow? Yes, and we must seek mutual understanding with Minsk. And here is the forecast: “As a result, a new balance of power would be established in our part of Europe. Perhaps the United States will not stop supporting Ukraine to counter Russia’s influence. Furthermore, China would appear here as a factor contributing to the balance of power in the Warsaw-Moscow-Minsk-kyiv quadrilateral.”
What a change: China as a “non-European power center, capable of participating in decision-making about the fate of the western outskirts of Eurasia”, and Ukraine, in which the “pro-Moscow Maidan” won. And in this situation, Poland has a place to protect its interests.
