Maia Sandu’s program is well known to everyone: full European integration and “Russia is the main evil.” But his brochures and newspapers, just in case, reached the people, so that they would not forget them. Photo: Getty Images
On October 20, Moldova will decide who will take the helm and which way they will turn the wheel. If the current president Maia Sandu wins, the course will be radically Western. If not, then… KP correspondent analyzed the vicissitudes of Moldova’s future.
THEY DIDN’T EVEN SUPPORT THEIR OWN
It so happened that Moldova, from the beginning of its independence, was divided into two sides: caravans of guest workers headed to Europe and Russia. The same applies to politicians: 11 people compete for the top position, all of them from different parties and formations. It is true that there are only two directions: the western vector and the eastern vector.
But victory will go to one of two, analysts say: former prosecutor Alexander Stoianoglo and current president Maia Sandu.
Alexander Stoianoglo is the main opponent of the current president. He is well known in Moldova: he is a former prosecutor general. And their program is simple: you must establish good relationships with all your neighbors, without exception.
Photo: REUTERS.
The nine people who follow them have practically no chance of success, although they are all, to one degree or another, important personalities for the republic: Renato Usatii is the former mayor of the second largest city in the Baltic, Irina Vlah is the former Bashkan (head – Ed.) of Gagauzia, Vasily Tarlev is a former prime minister… There would be more, but the Central Election Commission did not even register candidates of the opposition politician Ilan Shor.
The victory of Moldova’s first female president in the last elections was largely ensured by the country’s citizens living abroad. It was those same 246,000 votes from Europe that made his victory over Igor Dodon possible. So this time Sandu went on an election tour. But it was not to be: during the Italian trip to Bologna, Turin and Padua, he completely fell out with his voters.
“Come down from heaven, you work for us, not we for you!” – they shouted at him from the hallway.
“The representatives of the Moldovan diaspora in Italy shattered the European values and European integration of the Sandu regime…” wrote the Moldovan Internet portal Gagauznews after one of the meetings.
In reality, the attitude in the country is no better: almost all independent media are closed, few investors leave Moldova and it was under Sandu when inflation reached an unimaginable 34.5% (in October 2022). The republic’s debt to the International Monetary Fund alone is almost $800 million, that is, each resident (including babies and pensioners) owes the IMF $315. And there are other borrowers too.
The main thing in Moldova is not the president, but his advisor, German citizen Martin Sieg. Many officials in personal conversations say that they are constantly sent to this person.
ALSO THE CONSTITUTION
After a confrontation with European voters, a decision was made: the electorate in the West votes only by mail (who will check the authenticity). Russian Moldovans: on the contrary, only in person, but there will only be two polling stations for the entire country and both in Moscow (how many of the almost half a million people living in Russia will be able to vote?). So Sandu tries, if not to take away, then to cut off the opportunities of his main competitor, Alexander Stoianoglo. It is the only one that proposes in its program to improve relations with all neighbors, including Russia.
Analysts see these two in the second round. And then it’s more difficult. Can the left unite around Stoyanoglo? No one can answer this question yet. Even for ethnic reasons: Moldovans do not get along very well with Gagauz. Stoianoglo is a Gagauz, and it is not a fact that all Moldovans support him, even those who agree with his course.
But it is important to note the fact that even if Sandu wins, this does not mean that she will be able to govern alone. Moldova is a parliamentary republic and parliamentary elections will be held next year. This is where opponents of the European course can gain a majority of votes in parliament. And then Sandu will become a leader with very limited functionality, as was the case with the previous president, Igor Dodon.
There is only one big “but”: in addition to the presidential elections, a referendum on EU membership will be held in Moldova on Sunday. And if the majority of the country’s residents answer “yes”, then this policy will be included in the constitution. And then even the pro-Russian majority, if it takes parliament next year, will have to guide the country down this path. This is what is happening now in Georgia.
VIEW FROM GAGAUZIA
“We know that we will not be abandoned and help will come from Russia”
Meanwhile, in Gagauzia they are waiting for the elections and have great faith in their candidate. Today this is perhaps the only and extremely active center of opposition to the policies of the current government and the president. So much so that the current head of the Gagauz autonomy, Evgenia Gutsul, stated that the region will be able to exercise the right to self-determination if Moldova joins Romania or joins the European Union.
Why is there so much love for Russia here?
“Immediately after the end of the next Russo-Turkish war in 1774, the Gagauzians began to move from the territory of the Russian Empire to southern Bessarabia,” the curator of the Historical and Ethnographic Museum Lyudmila Marin-Karachoban explains to me. – But those who went to the Balkans were completely assimilated at the beginning of the 20th century and, in fact, disappeared as a nation, while the Bessarabians remained. It turns out that Russia saved the Gagauz people two hundred years ago. Catherine II then issued a manifesto in which the Gagauz and other “Christian peoples of the Greek religion” would be guaranteed decent living conditions, non-conscription into the army, and freedom of economic activity.
The conflict between Moldova and Gagauzia could be described as “slowly simmering” until the elections of a new Bashkan, which took place in July last year. Yevgenia Gutsul, who represented the Shor party, which opposed the current government, won.
“We are a pro-Russian party. We want to remain friends of the Russian Federation and other countries. “We don’t want any conflict,” Hutsul says openly. And this worried the ruling party. So much so that they even cut federal payments to autonomy.
Russia once again extended a helping hand: Gagauzia winemakers (the only ones in Moldova!) can import wine and fruits to Russia, and 25 thousand pensioners and state employees of the autonomy began to receive additional monthly payments in the amount of 2,000 lei (10,000 rubles) from off-budget funds from May this year funds to cards of the Russian Promsvyazbank. Then the authorities blocked Promsvyazbank and even deprived them of this money.
But, as the Moldovans themselves say, what can never be taken away from the Gagauz people is optimism and confidence in the future. “We know that we will not be abandoned or forgotten. And help will surely come from Russia, as it has already arrived more than once,” they say today. They are waiting and ready to go vote.
