The important thing is that these capacities will not be introduced “in the European way”, that is, without looking back, just to replace traditional generation with renewable energies, but where they are really needed. In regions where it is profitable and the demand for electricity is growing, which cannot be met with existing capacities.
In the scheme and program for the development of electric power systems of the Russian Federation (S&PR EPS) for 2024-2029, developed by the System Operator and approved by the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, three territories are identified where there is a shortage. generation capacity is planned for 2029. These are the southwestern part of the Siberian United Energy System (IPS), the Eastern IPS and the southwestern part of the Southern IPS, the press service of the System Operator of the Unified System told RG. of Energy (SO UES).
In the East, it is planned to close part of the deficit by introducing new renewable energy capacity. According to the director of ARVE, Alexey Zhikharev, the demand for electricity in the eastern regions is growing at a rapid pace. This is due, among other things, to the fact that in the last two years we have seen a reorientation of commercial turnover in this direction. In addition, thanks to significant government support, the local industry is actively developing. If immediate action is not taken, it is very likely that the shortfall predicted by SO UES will be met there.
“At the same time, I am absolutely sure that the most effective way to cover it in the short term will be the construction of solar and wind power plants,” says Zhikharev.
In a short period of two to three years, it is possible to build a wind power plant (WPP) or a solar power plant (SPP), he clarifies. You can’t build a coal or gas power plant that quickly. Furthermore, there are still big question marks over additional gas volumes in the Far East.
As energy expert Kirill Rodionov notes, the Far East is an ideal springboard for the introduction of renewable energy sources. Moreover, Sakhalin became the first Russian region to officially announce plans to achieve carbon neutrality (by the end of 2025). Favorable factors also include the presence of geothermal sources, which can be used to generate heat and electricity, and an extensive coastline along which large wind turbines can be located.
However, the Far East and Siberia are characterised by a rather low population density and not all areas have large industrial facilities. Not far from Murmansk, on an area of 257 hectares, the Kola wind farm with a capacity of 201 MW is possible. There are already electricity-intensive industrial facilities here and new ones are planned. In most cases, in the Far East and Siberia, such large generating facilities may not be needed.
According to Anton Poryadin, a partner at Yakov and Partners, there is currently a plan to commission 40-67 MW of solar generation facilities in the Trans-Baikal territory in 2027-2028, but such capacities will not be able to meet the growing demand. For example, the cities of Vladivostok and Nakhodka, the growing demand for electricity in the Yakutsk region and in southeastern Siberia. Part of the projected energy deficit in these regions can be covered by the introduction of 1 or 2 large renewable energy sources (~0.2 GW).
According to Zhikharev, in the future there will be demand in Russia for wind turbines of both multi-megawatt and sub-megawatt class. Everything depends on the economic development plans of different regions. In particular, in new infrastructure projects of large Arctic mining companies, such as Novatek, Rosneft, Norilsk Nickel, renewable energy facilities are considered as one of the energy supply options. This will require high-energy generating facilities. In isolated energy regions with insignificant amounts of energy consumption, hybrid power plant projects with RES power plants (medium and low energy generation) are relevant.
However, in the Far East, where the unified energy system is isolated, for example, in the Arkhangelsk region of the Komi Republic, the energy needs of individual villages range from 3 to 5 MW, Zhikharev explains.
From the point of view of Ekaterina Artemenkova, senior consultant at electricity analysis group Kept, the prospects for the development of renewable energy sources in IPS East are good. But the volume of electricity deficit that can be covered with renewable energy sources must be considered additional to the minimum required generation guaranteed in this region. It is approximately 1.3 GW, and if we take into account the modes of operation of the energy system in a year of water scarcity, when the production of hydroelectric power plants (HPP) is significantly limited, then the required volume of guaranteed generation is 2 GW. .
But in Siberia (Buryatia and Transbaikalia) it is necessary to adapt the plans for the construction of solar power plants with a volume of 1.1 GW within the framework of power supply agreements (CSA) for renewable energy sources, the expert believes . This must be done so as not to reduce the efficiency of traditional generation during the day and not end up with a situation similar to the IPS of the South. There, a high concentration of renewable energy installations, in conditions of underdeveloped grid infrastructure, led to their limitation in energy production. The emergence of new large renewable energy installations will lead to even greater restrictions for both existing and newly introduced installations.
SO UES explained that according to market rules, generation is discharged from the most expensive to the cheapest. And if RES are discharged, this means that all other types of generation have already been discharged and there is no more expensive generation in the energy system that can still be discharged. This is exactly what happens on some days in the south of Russia, where there are energy districts with a significant proportion of renewable energy sources.
But the question of reserve capacity still remains. The population and industry need a reliable and uninterrupted electricity supply, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, says Artemenkova. The sun and wind, as independent generating objects, do not meet these requirements. But RES should be considered additional sources of “green” electricity. They can bring their own economic effect, taking into account electricity prices, which are currently lower for RES than for new traditional stations. The issue of operationalizing these sources must be addressed comprehensively and the full cost of all integration measures must be taken into account.
As Poryadin points out, for example, SES calculates the cost of electricity at 25% to 37% less than traditional generation. But this does not take into account integration measures (infrastructure, network connection, etc.). Integration measures significantly increase the cost.
These also include maintaining traditional generation reserve capacities. According to Poryadin, to ensure uninterrupted supply of electricity to consumers, it will not be possible to refuse them.
At the same time, SO UES clarified that although the share of RES in Russia is insignificant, natural fluctuations in consumption affect the energy system much more than the unevenness of RES generation, which is taken into account at the stage of planning work for a given day. Therefore, today there is no need to create additional reserves or attract special regulatory resources to compensate for the unevenness of RES production. But with the introduction of large volumes of renewable energy generation, these resources will definitely be needed, SO UES stressed.
By 2029, the power balance of the Eastern UES will reach a deficit of 8,763 million kWh, which is equivalent to 1,348 MW of power. To eliminate it, it is necessary to build new facilities for the production of electric energy of up to 1,348 MW. In addition, to ensure the reliability of the balance, up to 1,935 MW.
To eliminate the energy shortage in the Siberian Unified Energy System, a competition was held for the construction of new generation, in which 525 MW were selected. And the total deficit here will be eliminated by the construction of new additional facilities for the production of electrical energy in a volume of 700 MW, or the implementation of alternative solutions for the development of power lines. To eliminate the electricity deficit in the Southern IPS, the construction of new facilities for the production of electrical energy of up to 1,286 MW is required, the UES reported.
