The 12-month Euribor continues to add data and sessions to the monthly average for August and each seems closer to breaking the historic bullish streak that has been taking place since December 2021. Its daily price today, Friday, August 18, has located at 4,091%, slightly below its reading on Thursday and in line with the last weeks in which it moves below the official rates set by the European Central Bank (ECB) on July 27.
With a week and a half to go until the end of the month, the monthly average for August remains at 4,071%, 7 basis points less than in July (4,149%). Virtually, the index draws the first monthly fall since December 2021, thus ending a historic streak of 19 consecutive rises in which it has gone from trading at negative rates (-0.5%) to maximums since November 2008 above 4%.
The 6-month Euribor rose this Friday to 3.94%, while the 3-month reference is at 3.81%. The narrowing of the spreads between the three terms has to do with the ECB’s position to adopt a possible pause in September, in what would be its first meeting without raising rates after nine consecutive increases since July 2022.
The central bank has been reducing the size of the monetary tightening with three increases of 25 basis points on July 27, June 15 and May 4. They contrast with the half-point increases of March 16, February 2, December 15 and July 21, 2022, or the aggressive movements of 75 basis points that decided on October 27 and September 8 of last year.
