The latest rains, especially the falls during last Easter, have improved the prospects for the olive oil harvest for the next campaign (in the olive grove the campaigns run from October to September). Specifically, according to the recent ‘Advance of surfaces and productions’ published at the end of February by the Ministry of Agriculture, an increase in olive oil production by 21.9% was already estimated for the last months of the 2023 campaign. -2024. . The aforementioned rainfall also turned around prices at source, which fell in the days immediately after Easter. An effect that has now disappeared. According to the Infaoliva price observatory, on April 9, prices were quoted at 7.12 euros/kg (extra virgin), 6.78/kg (virgin) and 6.51/kg (lampante). Yesterday these same concepts were at 7.5 euros/kg, 7.18 euros/kg and 6.96 euros/kg, respectively. Not only that, but consumer organizations such as Facua and OCU warn again that ‘green gold’ continues through the roof… What is happening?
The head of the Olive Oil Sector Council of Agri-Food Cooperatives, Rafael Sánchez de Puerta, points to the ‘law of supply and demand’: “We have had abnormally low harvests for two years and, faced with a lack of supply, we have a demand that remains high, this has an effect on the price”, summarizes the representative of Cooperatives. In this sense, he adds another element to the equation: “The availability of oil is historically low,” he points out. That is, there is much less oil stored from other years. Specifically, Sánchez de Puerta explains that “last year production was about 650,000 tons and, for this 2023-2024 campaign, about 850,000 tons are planned. This should lower prices, however, if the stocks that remained in “Last campaign they were about 450,000 tons, in the current one they are barely 250,000 tons.”
In addition to all of the above, the head of oil at Cooperatives observes, it is worth noting the poor situation in other producing countries such as Greece, Tunisia or Turkey. In his opinion, “until next November 1 we will have to manage what we have” and he points out that by then we will have the new harvest and we will enter another phase. That is, don’t expect cheaper oil until the end of the year. In addition, he clarifies, everything will also depend on how this spring and the imminent summer go. Or what is the same, that there are no extreme atmospheric phenomena that ruin such a delicate phase for the plant as flowering.
The National Association of Industrial Packaging and Refiners of Edible Oils (ANIERAC) estimates that in the first three months of this year 55.21 million liters of olive oil have been sold in Spain. This is 8.27% less than in the same period in 2023. While, in the accumulated of the first six months of the current campaign (October-March), sales amounted to 110.47 million liters. 17.51% less compared to the same period of the previous campaign, 2022-2023.
“The consumer has not given up on olive oils”
However, despite sales suffering from the Interprofessional of Spanish Olive Oil, its manager Teresa Pérez is surprised for the better: “When the price began to rise in the last campaign, most expected sales to plummet. “Two years later, we have proven that we were wrong.” In this sense, Pérez also highlights the success of betting on promotion in the Spanish market in the face of a change in habits that was causing the ‘green gold’ to lose ground and recalls the popular advertising campaign starring actor José Coronado and his son Nicolás under the slogan ‘For a lifetime’.
In this regard, the representative of Interprofessional highlights that “the consumer has not given up on olive oils” and is confident that everything produced in the last two years will be sold. “What’s more, if we had had more product available, it could have been released to the markets,” she adds. For Sánchez de Puerta (Agri-Food Cooperatives) “people are increasingly differentiating the product better.” In his opinion, the Spanish consumer has chosen to save and use less oil but without giving it up or turning to other alternatives such as sunflower oil. From Interprofesional, Teresa Pérez makes a very similar reflection: “The consumer of olive oils, faced with the rise in prices, has first chosen to reduce consumption.” That is to say, Pérez continues, the consumer “buys less in smaller containers and resorts to tricks such as using spray to take advantage of every last drop.”
