By 2025, we will be offered one or the other deal, regardless of who will be in the White House: Trump or Biden.
Photo: REUTERS.
Despite calls from his supporters to withdraw from the election after the embarrassing debate with Trump, Joe Biden has no intention of doing so and is trumpeting his imminent victory. The possibility is not excluded that the US President will stay for a second term and is still “creaking” in the White House. What will then be the US policy towards the conflict in Ukraine?
KP.RU spoke to political analysts Dmitry Evstafiev and Malek Dudakov about the situation in the United States ahead of the presidential election and what might happen after it.
– Why in the United States, where there has long been a cult of energetic and healthy politicians, did a frail old man end up in the presidential chair? Who needed this?
– We continue to live the image of the United States, which was formed many years ago. There lived a young, energetic politician, although already addicted to very strong painkillers, named John Kennedy,” says Dmitri Evstafiev. -I would like to remind you that Ronald Reagan was elected for his second term at the age of 73. By the way, keep in mind that most of those running against Biden are also seniors.
But there is still a point. Still, these people have a certain political experience, unlike representatives of the modern generation. The logic that guided the American elite – mainly the aristocracy of the Atlantic coast – was that the position of president should be at least an understandable person, and not a character from another planet, like Pete Buttigieg (US Secretary of Transportation). .USA, openly gay*, rising star of the Democratic Party – Ed.). This, excuse me, is a monkey with a grenade and it’s unclear when he’ll pull the safety pin.
– But was it really true that five years ago the Democrats had no one who could challenge Trump, who was running for a second term?
– The East Coast aristocracy urgently needed a controlled president, incapable of acting independently with force. Especially after Trump, who started doing the damn thing, scattered the administration. He frightened the American elite by starting to create a family system of government.
– Aren’t the Clintons, the President and the Secretary of State, nepotism?
– This is clandestinity. This is good. President Biden is part of this clan, Barack Obama also came from there. But when everything is closed within the family, instead of a formal control loop, an informal one emerges: this is the worst thing that can happen in the United States. The only thing worse is a military coup.
The chances that Biden, if he survives, will win the election are approximately 60%
Photo: REUTERS.
THE “VICREY” WAS PUT IN ITS PLACE
– Biden, while still vice president, came to Moscow in 2011 to “warn” Vladimir Putin (then prime minister) that he did not need to go to the presidential elections. Is it possible to connect Biden’s obvious hostility and dislike toward our president now to the fact that they probably had some kind of conversation then?
– This is absolutely obvious. Biden arrived with great confidence, like a viceroy. He then came to Ukraine in the same way.
And then it turned out that he was not the viceroy, but simply an official, with whom, by the way, they spoke quite respectfully, but his opinion was ignored. And, of course, the hostility comes from there.
When he was still more or less sane, he was ready to talk to Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and even smiled. But internally, of course, there is a lot of resentment. Biden is a man of personal emotions. For him, personal history, the life history of his family, was very important. He couldn’t stay away from politics, it’s something that obsesses him.
– We start from an assumption: Biden wins the November elections. What does this mean for the United States itself, for the world and for Russia?
– Biden’s chances of winning the election, if he survives, are about 60%. I think Trump is not the preferred candidate of the American people.
This will mean very serious problems with the legitimacy of political power in the United States. Firstly, half or about half of the country does not recognize the results of these elections in principle. Secondly, if the president remains the same, a problem arises with the legitimacy of political decisions. A simple question: did Biden sign this? Or his double, or is it not clear who? Or is it even a facsimile?
Ultimately, this will mean the beginning of unrestricted American clan fighting, a fight that goes beyond pure politics. It is hard to imagine now, but I believe that shooting political competitors will become one of the methods of political struggle of the Americans.
Trump is not America’s preferred candidate
Photo: REUTERS.
BOLIVAR CANNOT SUPPORT THREE
– In relations with Russia, Biden is absolutely predictable, that is, is it a confrontation as much as possible?
– I disagree. I think the main problem with Biden’s “conditional second term” will be an internal problem. In foreign policy, the American deep state and oligarchy will seek a reduction in tension. The Bolívar of American power cannot support three. And they already have three major conflicts and a potential fourth on the agenda.
In foreign policy, the main role will not be played by Biden, but by the clans that will take control, as they say, of his pen or facsimile. But most of the clans are interested in reducing the intensity of the confrontation with Russia. They will make two out of three conflicts, but not three.
– You also mentioned the fourth…
– China is the main one. Great European conflict, Ukraine: two. War in the Middle East (Israel – Iran) – three. And the possibility of a thaw in conflicts in West Africa, which will inevitably affect the Strait of Gibraltar, the most important transport artery, is fourfold.
The only chance for the American Deep State to avoid very serious domestic consequences is to “outdo Trump.” To the extent possible, let’s leave him out of the equation for now.
“ANY PRESIDENT WILL PROPOSE AN AGREEMENT ON UKRAINE”
In 2025, regardless of who is in the White House, the West will try to impose a peace treaty on Ukraine on Russia, says political scientist Malek Dudakov.
– In Ukraine, everything will be decided on the battlefield. At the moment, Russia has an advantage, we see that the Americans have begun to supply much less weapons to kyiv than in 2023, and they force the Europeans, first of all, to deplete their arsenals,” the expert says. “And the Americans are clearly trying to refocus on the Southeast Asian region in order to compete with China.
I therefore fully accept that by 2025 we will be offered one or another agreement, regardless of who will be in the White House: Trump or Biden.
The big question is whether it makes sense for us to agree to such agreements, and we do not yet know the terms, but there are already growing calls in the West to negotiate with Russia.
In Britain, Nigel Farage (leader of the UK Reform Party – Ed.) is actively saying that we should seek peace, the Christian Democrats in Germany have changed the agenda and are also talking about negotiations.
I do not rule out that even in France, after his defeat in the parliamentary elections, Macron will offer some kind of negotiation.
*LGBT is recognized as an extremist movement in Russia and is banned.
