Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump.
Photo: REUTERS.
The presidential race in the United States is entering its final stretch: the elections are already on November 5, but there is no clear favorite. However, some political scientists believe that Republican Donald Trump still has better chances. Its ratings are rising both nationally and in swing states. But Democrat Kamala Harris could not extend her “honeymoon” with voters until the elections.
THE “FOURTH FIFTH” WILL OVERCOME
Donald Trump was ahead of Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden in the polls until he was replaced by Kamala Harris in July. When Democrats finally had a younger candidate, they attracted campaign contributions and new supporters. Trump was playing catch-up.
But in the last two weeks, the 45th president of the United States managed to increase his rating from 46.8% to 48.2%. But his rival’s indicators stopped at 49%.
“The chances now are approximately equal. They are slightly higher for the Republican candidate, but not by much. The reason is that political polarization has been consolidated in the United States; no process can change it yet; Approximately equal electoral blocs have emerged, which cannot yet be divided,” Ivan Loshkarev, political scientist and associate professor at MGIMO, explained the situation to Komsomolskaya Pravda.
WHIRZ PARTY MACHINES
In American elections, a candidate, even if he wins the majority of votes nationwide, can lose if his opponent gains the support of more than 270 electors in all states (out of 538). To do this, it is necessary to win the so-called swing states.
Kamala Harris.
Photo: REUTERS.
And here the situation also favors Trump. He leads all battleground states by narrow margins, according to polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight. If the elections were held now, the former president would win a landslide victory, obtaining 312 electoral votes compared to 226 for his rival.
The president of the communications holding Minchenko Consulting, Evgeniy Minchenko, believes that the fate of the US presidential elections can be determined by a single state.
“The outcome of the election will be decided by voting in seven, three or even one state. Probably in Pennsylvania. It was there that Trump was handing out fries at McDonald’s the other day. The key point is the work of the party machines to ensure the participation of their voters. And it will be high: records have already been broken in terms of the volume of early voting and by mail,” said the political strategist.
APRON AND POTATOES
US presidential candidates still have some time to convince undecided voters. 2% of citizens still doubt who they should vote for. And 12% of those who seem to have made a decision admit it: they can change their mind.
In an attempt to attract additional votes, Harris and Trump undertook unusual activities: the Democrat began giving interviews, and the billionaire decided to work at McDonald’s and, in an apron, quite skillfully shook a tray of French fries.
Trump fried potatoes at McDonald’s and then handed out orders to Pennsylvania voters who visited the cafe.
Photo: REUTERS.
“Kamala Harris began to open up more and lifted the taboo on communicating with the press. But there are problems. First of all, there is a categorical and direct refusal to answer difficult questions directly. Secondly, there is a low reaction speed, lack of depth of personality and analysis. Yes, it is clear that she is being trained, but the Democratic candidate has no substance or charm. It fails to create at least the image of a sincere and organic person,” notes Evgeniy Minchenko.
Political scientist Ivan Loshkarev considers that the main problem of both candidates is the lack of new ideas: “They compete according to the principle of lesser evil: each wants to convince voters that they will do less harm than their opponent. So far, they have equally failed to explain both past successes and the reasons for their failures.”
Instead of working on the content, politicians accumulate the “blood” of the electoral campaign: money. As of early October, according to The New York Times, Harris’ campaign had $346 million, Trump’s $283 million.
“We see a very small part of the campaign. Candidates use so-called targeted advertising – clips and articles that arouse the interest of a specific group of voters. For example, in Pennsylvania, the issue of Harris supporting Palestinians is being pushed specifically among Jewish voters. On the contrary, on sites that are popular with people from Arab countries, they say that Harris’s husband is Jewish. That is why he supposedly fully supports Israel,” says Evgeniy Minchenko.
“TERRIBLE AND DANGEROUS GUY”
Experience speaks in favor of Trump’s victory. Let’s remember what the polls said before the 2016 and 2020 elections. During the 2016 campaign, Hillary Clinton was supposedly ahead of the billionaire in the second half of October by an average of 6%. However, Donald defeated Hillary and became president.
In 2020, Biden beat Trump by almost 9%. But in the end, the gap in the swing states turned out to be much smaller than sociologists predicted: between 1 and 2%.
Where do these reassuring predictions for Trump’s rivals come from? American sociologists note: some voters are simply afraid or ashamed to say that they support this, according to most media, of a terrible and dangerous kind. They say they will vote for a Democrat, but in the electoral college they give their vote to Trump. Therefore, their support is usually higher than the polling data indicates.
By the way, there is an interesting scenario: a tie. This will happen if none of the candidates manages to obtain 270 electoral votes, that is, the result will be 269:269. According to Ivan Loshkarev, the probability of such a scenario occurring is zero.
But still, if this happens, the US Congress will decide the fate of the White House. The House of Representatives will determine the candidacy of the president, the Senate, that of the vice president. But on November 5, Americans elect not only the Head of State, but also the entire House of Representatives, as well as a third of the senators. Quite unexpectedly, it may happen that they decide who can enter the Oval Office.
