This coming Monday, July 1, the famous Wimbledon tournament begins in London. The oldest tennis competition, first held in 1877, for several decades the only “Slam” held on grass, the most specific surface in modern tennis. Its current winner is Carlos Alcaraz, who remains one of the main favorites. We suggest evaluating the third seed’s chances of defending his title.
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You could say that last year Carlos won Wimbledon almost out of nowhere. No, he himself, of course, was already a top tennis player – the US Open champion – 2022, the first racket of the world at the end of the same season (and the youngest in the history of men’s tennis) – but he played only two tournaments on grass until 2023. In 2021, Alcaraz barely made it past the first round of Wimbledon, and in the second he lost without a fight to Daniil Medvedev, and a year later he reached the round of 16 there, without meeting any strong rivals along the way, and lost to Jannik Sinner.
In 2023, Alcaraz reached the semifinals of Roland Garros for the first time in his career, where he was eliminated by Novak Djokovic, and in the third and fourth sets he was practically unable to play due to cramps, largely caused by nerves. Despite this, the Spaniard first went to the preparatory tournament before Wimbledon, the famous Queen’s Club in London, and after a difficult victory over the lucky loser Arthur Rinderknesh in the first round, he did not give up a set to anyone, although his Opponents also included Jiri Legechka, Grigor Dimitrov, Sebastian Korda and Alex de Minaur.
Carlos Alcaraz is the winner of Wimbledon 2023
Photo: Julian Finney/Getty Images
The first title on grass clearly gave the Spaniard confidence in his abilities on this surface. At Wimbledon he easily dealt with one opponent after another and on the way to the final he lost only two games, having not played a single five-set match. He also easily defeated Holger Rune in the quarter-finals and Daniil Medvedev in the semi-finals.
In the decisive match, Carlos was expecting the main “boss” of both Wimbledon and tennis in general, Novak Djokovic. The Serb came to that tournament as its seven-time champion and had not lost there since 2017, and then, as in 2016, he was in a very bad state due to health and motivation problems.
A victory in the final would allow Novak to win his fifth consecutive Wimbledon (the tournament was not held in 2020 due to the pandemic) and equal Bjorn Borg and Roger Federer in this indicator, in addition to catching up with the Swiss in the rankings. Total number of titles in the tournament. However, Carlos scored an excellent decisive victory in 4 hours 43 minutes by 1:6, 7:6 (8:6), 6:1, 3:6, 6:4 and won his second major in his career, proving that had drawn conclusions from his loss to Djokovic in the Roland Garros semi-finals five weeks earlier, and also that he adapts quickly to new conditions and unusual surfaces.
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Let me emphasize it once again: Before the 2023 season, Alcaraz only played six (!) matches on grass, of which he won four. This definitely did not allow him to be considered one of the main favorites at Wimbledon before the start of the grass season last year, but Carlos denied the predictions and even defeated Novak, who had long been invincible on these courts, and, Knowing the Serbian’s character he clearly wanted to at least repeat Roger’s record.
As for this year, Carlos did not defend his title at the Queen’s Club, losing in the second round to Briton Jack Draper. However, it should be noted here that this time the Spaniard triumphed at Roland Garros, and at the end of the Major he won two difficult five-set matches in a row – over Sinner in the semifinals and over Zverev in the final. After such a success, it is at least psychologically difficult to quickly move on to a much less important ATP-500 tournament in London, and Alcaraz had time to prepare for Wimbledon – from his defeat there to the start of the Slam on grass, it was more than a week and a half.
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Despite this initial failure, Carlos has excellent statistics on grass: 85% wins. Yes, he still hasn’t played many matches, winning 17 and losing three, and his results can be seriously evaluated in two or three years, but at the moment Alcaraz on grass courts is at the level of tennis legends. Thus, the five-time Wimbledon champion, Bjorn Borg, won 82% of matches on grass, the seven-time winner of this tournament, Pete Sampras, 83.5%. Federer has an 87% win rate on this surface, Djokovic has an 86% win rate.
All other top players currently have a much lower percentage. For example, Sinner, who is considered by many to be the main favourite for the upcoming Wimbledon, has only 68% of victories on grass. Medvedev can “boast” 66%, Zverev 65.5%, Tsitsipas only 57%. Of those who have performed well at Wimbledon in recent years, a high percentage is made up of Matteo Berrettini, a finalist in 2021 (80%), but who is now not well prepared physically.
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Considering that it is also unclear in what condition Novak Djokovic will arrive at Wimbledon, whose performance in London after a torn meniscus at Roland Garros and surgery already looks like a miracle, Alcaraz, together with Sinner, looks like a clear candidate for victory. Although Carlos did not defend his title at last year’s US Open, losing in the semifinals to Medvedev, he already has experience of repeated victories at quite important tournaments: in 2022 and 2023 he won the Madrid Masters, and in 2023 and 2024 he became the winner of a similar tournament in Indian Wells. The Spaniard should not be burned by nerves, so a brilliant battle is expected in the semifinals with Jannik Sinner, which may well determine the champion of the tournament.
