Argentina-Ecuador. For you and for Messi
Alexey Anisimov July 4, 2024, 07:45 Moscow time Audio version: Your browser does not support the audio element.
The forward had a muscle injury, but the Argentines are fine.
The group stage of the 2024 Copa America is over, let’s move on to the playoffs. On July 5, the quarter-finals of the Copa America between Argentina and Ecuador will be played at the NRG Stadium in Houston (USA). The kick-off will sound at 4:00 Moscow time. Before making our own prediction on the outcome of the match, let’s try to understand the odds offered by the bookmakers.
What do bookmakers expect from the 2024 Copa del Rey match between Argentina and Ecuador on July 5, 2024?
Bookmakers agree that Argentina is the clear favourite for the upcoming playoff match. The odds of a win in regular time fluctuate around 1.47, which is approximately 68% probability. You can bet that the Argentines will make it to the next stage anyway with a coefficient of 1.20 – 83%.
As a result, analysts have much less confidence in the Ecuadorian team. Their victory in regular time is comparable to a sensation and is available on the bookmakers’ lines with a rate of 8.50, i.e. with a probability of 11%. Note that a draw after 90 minutes and extra time is also unlikely, the odds are closer to 4.20.
At the same time, experts do not expect a high performance from their opponents. A total of more than 2.5 goals has a rate of 2.30, and a total of less than 2.5 goals has a rate of 1.61. You can bet on “both teams will score” for 2.60. The most likely outcome of the match is 1:0 in favor of the Argentines, the rate reaches 4.60. This is more than 20% probability.
Analysis and prediction of the quarter-finals of the Copa America Argentina – Ecuador (05/07/2024)
The Argentine national team made it through the group stage of the Copa America almost without any problems. In Group A, they won all nine possible points, beating the national teams of Canada (2-0), Chile (1-0) and Peru (2-0). Of course, in such circumstances, they simply could not avoid making it to the playoffs of the tournament. Another plus is that they got to Ecuador, which finished second.
Almost flawless, not just flawless? Yes, because with such a big lead, it was necessary to score more than five goals. They also lost Lionel Messi due to injury. Of course, the leader is improving every day, but even if he takes the field, he will hardly be able to show his best football right away.
However, the result of the last round match against the Peruvian national team clearly shows that the Albiceleste can do without their captain. Messi remained on the bench and his team won, tripling the ball possession and sextupling the number of shots on goal. Lautaro Martínez scored a double.
So far, Argentina has fully justified its title as the favourite for the 2024 World Cup. The opponents are passing by with ease, without even taking advantage of many of the opportunities. In this state, it will not be difficult to face the Ecuadorian team either, which won only one match out of three in the group stage, with a draw and a loss. Even without Messi!
The history of head-to-head meetings is both in favour. Of the last seven matches since 2017, the Argentines have won six with a draw away from home in qualifying for the 2022 World Cup. The only thing is that we do not expect a crushing victory for the Argentines, taking into account both the recent results and the energetic character of the Ecuadorians, who beat Mexico (0-0). But something like 1:0 or 2:0 could well be here.
Tender: Argentina wins by 1-2 goals in 1.98.
