On Thursday, June 28, the draw for the men’s and women’s draws of Wimbledon, which will be held from July 1 to 14, took place. Unlike previous Majors, the organizers did not distribute the participants into the group before, but after the completion of the qualifications, which now allows for analysis. According to the results of the draw, it turned out that the 2021 US Open champion Daniil Medvedev, who took fifth place, finished in the same fourth place as the winner of the 2024 Australian Open, Jannik Sinner, who is playing his first tournament as the leader of the ATP rankings.
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But we still have to get to Sinner. A year ago, Medvedev reached the semifinals of Wimbledon. This means that in the current draw he will have to defend 800 points. And it will be very difficult to do this. Overall, Daniel has an easy path only in the first round.
Serbian-American Alexander Kovacevic, 25, is unlikely to pose a serious threat. Medvedev has never played with this tennis player, who is ranked 86th in the world rankings. Kovacevic’s best result is 83rd place, which he rose to on June 10. The American plays more often in the Challenger than in the ATP and will appear in the main draw at Wimbledon for the first time. At the 2024 Australian Open, Alexander won his first match at the TBS level.
Alexander Kovacevich at Roland Garros 2024
Photo: Clive Mason/Getty Images
But difficulties may arise from the second round. If Medvedev beats Kovacevic, he will play either Alexander Muller or qualifier Hugo Gaston. Both players represent France, and Daniil has historically played unsuccessfully against representatives of this country. We tried to find out why this happens a little earlier this season. This material has not lost its relevance in the least.
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Here we will only note that Medvedev managed to play with these Frenchmen once during his career and won two victories. Daniil beat Gastón 7-6 (9-7), 6-4 in the quarterfinals of the 2021 Paris Masters. He defeated Müller with two shuttlecocks in one of the tough Challengers in 2016, but that was ago. so long that it can be ignored.
In the third round, Medvedev’s most likely opponent is Chinese Zhang Zhizhen (32). And this is an unpleasant surprise. Does everyone remember that it was this tennis player who recently knocked out the Russian in the second round of the grass tournament in Halle? Daniil lost in a bitter fight: 3:6, 6:2, 6:7 (5:7). Eight years ago, Medvedev defeated Zhang Zhizhen in qualifying for the clay tournament in Nice, but this obviously does not count either.
Zhang Zhizhen at the ATP Halle 2024 Tournament
Photo: Thomas F. Starke/Getty Images
In the fourth round, that is, in the round of 16, Medvedev can play with Grigor Dimitrov (10). This is based on qualification. Apparently, if Daniil reaches this stage, he will fight one of the veterans of tennis. Here are 22nd seeds Adrian Mannarino and Gael Monfils (again, all French) and three-time Grand Slam champion Stan Wawrinka… With Mannarino, Medvedev is 3-4 in personal meetings, with Monfils and Wawrinka – 2-2 each.
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Well, in the quarterfinals, as already mentioned, Medvedev and Sinner are likely to meet. At one point, the Italian was a client of the Russian, losing 0-6 on a personal level, but the last five games remained with Yannick. And if it’s a new meeting, I really don’t want the score to be even. Who can stop Sinner from facing Medvedev in the quarterfinals? Off the top of my head, Wimbledon 2021 finalist Matteo Berrettini (in the second round) and Ben Shelton (14th) in the fourth. At the same time, it must be understood that the fact that Sinner does not reach the quarterfinals will in any case become a sensation, no matter who he plays.
Jannik Sinner training for Wimbledon 2024
Photo: Clive Brunskill/Getty Images
In the semifinals, Medvedev can compete with tennis players such as Carlos Alcaraz (3), Casper Ruud (8). Here, of course, it would be preferable to meet with Ruud. Kasper, Daniil’s client (0-3 personal), is not a big fan of grass (4-6 in his career at the ATP level). Alcaraz is the current Wimbledon champion, and that says it all. His motivation will simply skyrocket. And in personal meetings, Carlos is ahead: 4-2.
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The final will probably be Novak Djokovic (2), if the Serb is in perfect form. It is possible that Medvedev’s opponent in the title battle will be his long-time acquaintance Alexander Zverev (4). However, I would like it to be Andrei Rublev (6). Finally, we should never discount Hubert Hurkacz (7), who has one of the best serves on the circuit. Just in case, let’s recall the statistics of Medvedev’s personal encounters with these tennis players: with Djokovic – 5-10, with Zverev – 12-7, with Rublev – 7-2, with Hurkacz – 3-3.
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