There’s little time left to wait! Today, June 1, the final of the Champions League for the 2023/2024 season will be played on the neutral field of Wembley Stadium in London. Borussia Dortmund, who reached the finals with blood, sweat and some luck, will face the most experienced team in the tournament: Real Madrid. Slovenian referee Slavko Vincic will give the opening whistle at 22:00 Moscow time.
Events like this don’t happen very often. Furthermore, games for a trophy are always about emotions. Therefore, it is not surprising that there is a lot of excitement around the upcoming Champions League final: experts make their predictions, fans discuss lineups and share expectations, and analysts evaluate the possibilities. We have sorted the bookmaker lines for you and also prepared our own forecast.
Ancelotti’s experience and Kroos’ final chord
Despite the fact that in the matches for trophies the chances even of rivals of different levels tend to be equal, in the upcoming final of the Champions League analysts give a clear preference to the Spanish team. You can bet on Real Madrid’s victory in regulation time in bookmakers with an odds of 1.67, which is equivalent to a 60% probability. Borussia’s success rate is estimated at 5.50, which is approximately 18%. A tie after 60 minutes is worth 4.30 (23%).
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It is easy to understand the experts in this case. Real is the team with the most titles in the tournament (14 big-eared trophies), and the squad and coaching staff are selected first class. The attacks will be powered by Jude Bellingham and Toni Kroos, with Vinicius playing the finishing role. The first is a candidate for the Ballon d’Or, the second will probably play the best game before retiring and the third is deservedly among the 3 best players of the Champions League season. Not even Mats Hummels could fight bison like that alone.
At the same time, there is no doubt about Carlo Ancelotti’s length and experience; The Italian coach had so many important games that the talented Edin Terzic looks like a child compared to him. By the way, bookmakers estimate that the bet on Madrid’s victory over Dortmund has an odds of 2.90, which corresponds approximately to a probability of 35%. Not so little!
Bellingham will have no regrets about his former club
Developing the topic of objectives, it is worth noting that analysts are inclined towards an effective result. A total of more than 2.5 goals in a row has a coefficient of 1.77, which represents a probability of 56%. Furthermore, if both teams score, the odds will be 1.75 (57%). Among the main contenders for goals in the Champions League final are the Real Madrid players. Vinicius’ goal can be bet at 2.40 (42%), Bellingham’s goal at 2.75 (36%) and Rodrigo’s accurate shot is also valued at 2.75 (36%).
These estimates have a statistical basis. Real Madrid scored 87 goals in 38 games. The examples are at the level of the champions and runners-up of the 5 main European leagues. In European competitions, Madrid was also effective: 26 goals in 12 games in the qualifying stages of the Champions League. However, Borussia has something to answer for. Dortmund scored 17 goals in the European Cup during the same period and nine goals in the last three rounds of the Bundesliga. Therefore, a BVB goal in the next match is logically estimated with a probability of 65% (1.54).
If only the referee didn’t interfere
The Champions League final is not just about goals. The players, coaches, staff, management and fans have overcome so many milestones along the way that they must have accumulated a lot of emotions. Today, in the Borussia – Real Madrid match in London, these emotions will spill over, as usually happens in these cases. The main referee of the match was Slavko Vincic, who worked in seven matches of the current Champions League and showed 21 yellow cards. It should be noted that there have been no eliminations or sanctions yet.
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By the way, you can bet on an 11-meter shot in regulation time with an odds of 2.50; the probability is 40%. A bet on a sanction in the form of expulsion from the field is available with an odds of 4.00 – probability of 25%. And if a foul is called before the throw-in, goal kick, corner, offside and goal, the 4.00 odds (25% probability) will also apply. The yellow card for simulation is sanctioned at 10.00 (10%), for delay – at 5.00 (20%), for taking off the shirt – at 7.00 (14%). Considering how the ending may turn out, the last three options are quite realistic.
Prediction for the Champions League match Borussia Dortmund – Real Madrid (06/01/2024)
Based on the expectations of analysts, the state of the teams and the experience of past finals, we will make a forecast of the result of the next Champions League final. Logic dictates that Real Madrid will deservedly be the favorite. In addition to the ability to win finals, the Club has almost perfect statistics in the current edition of the main European Cup. In the language of numbers, out of 12 games, Madrid won nine (eight in regulation time) and tied three more.
Unless something extraordinary happens, Dortmund’s only chance is to force the match to a penalty shootout. The fact is that Dortmund often showed shaky results at the finish line, devastatingly losing outright after crushing victories and winning again. Of course, they will prepare for the final, but it will be difficult to count on a victory in regular time. So the first part of the forecast is that Real will not lose after 90 minutes.
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Since the bookmaker’s odds for X2 are very low (1.18), we will add the second part. In our opinion, it makes sense to take several hooks at once. Firstly, Madrid’s defense is exemplary not only by Primera standards, but also by the top five leagues. They conceded 26 goals in 38 games. Only Inter from Serie A (22) and Bayer from the Bundesliga (24) have fewer, but Leverkusen played four fewer games. Goalkeeper Andrei Lunin fell ill with the flu, but there is Thibaut Courtois, recovered and ready to play, who is still one of the best in the world.
The second point is Borussia’s forwards. Sebastien Haller has just returned from his ankle problems, Jadon Sancho, despite a good loan from Manchester United, does not reach the title of leader and Niklas Füllkrug, despite all his help to the team, does not impress either. The third reason lies in the trend of the Champions League finals. The last five finals ended with a clean sheet and few goals, four of them 1:0. For all the above, we should expect something like 2-0 in favor of Real Madrid and the 15th anniversary trophy in the collection.
Tender: La Real does not lose and the total is less than 2.5 goals in 2.48.
