Germany’s chances of winning Euro 2024 are only increasing. But France are not even among the top three favourites.
Dmitry Zimin July 3, 2024, 19:45 Moscow time Audio version: Your browser does not support the audio element.
The top 3 has finally been formed.
Opta, a data analytics company, has updated its own table after the quarter-finals matches with the teams’ chances of progressing to the next rounds of Euro 2024. The prediction is based on the processing of a large amount of data and Germany has emerged as the main favourite of the tournament.
A bit of a paradox: Julian Nagelsmann’s team has a 20% chance of winning the home European Championship, while its chances of reaching the semi-finals and final are slightly lower than those of Spain (48% – 52%), its rival in the European Championship. In other words, the Germans become the main contenders for the title only if they win the next match. And if the Spaniards win, then, according to Opta, it will be more difficult for them to win in the final (19.2% chance of winning the title). Perhaps the slight difference in chances is due to the support of the home crowd. One way or another, the first quarter-final match will be played on July 5. We will find out everything there.
The third most likely candidate for the title is England. Yes, yes, Gareth Southgate’s boring team. The chances of the British taking the trophy back to the homeland of football are no less (17.5%). This is even higher than that of France. Not surprising, given the grid. At the same time, the chances of reaching the semi-finals are estimated at 59.5%; only the Netherlands have a better figure. Switzerland is apparently not particularly valued. Murat Yakin’s team’s chances of winning Euro 2024 are 5.9% and of reaching the final – 12.8%. Not much. But England is unlikely to have an easy time against such an opponent.
Finally, we come to France. It is a paradox that in mid-June Opta considered them the main favourites to win Euro 2024: 18.4%, followed by England (17.9%) and only then Germany (14.5%). But the playoff table adjusted the chances of everyone. France’s passage to the semi-finals is estimated at 53.9% and to the final at 24.1%. Apparently, the level of play of Didier Deschamps’ team has not yet fascinated the analysts. In fact, like the Portuguese: they will win the title with a probability of 9.8%.
The Netherlands are the top favourites in the shadows. Yes, many are convinced that they will beat Turkey and reach the semi-finals. Ronald Koeman’s team has the highest chance of doing so among all the quarter-finalists: 61.9%. But reaching the final is a more difficult story, because in the semi-finals you will probably have to play the English. Therefore, the chances of winning the trophy are only 9.1%. However, Türkiye is overall the biggest underdog: 3.1%. But we know that miracles sometimes happen.
