The US Open is the most progressive and technologically advanced Grand Slam tournament. In a way, it can be called the exact opposite of Wimbledon. But American politics also has contradictory components that seem archaic and overly conservative. A striking example is the draw procedure.
The US Open draw is not determined in an open ceremony, but is declared ready. The entire process of its formation takes place behind closed doors, which has raised many suspicions of possible fraud. A particularly notorious scandal erupted in 2011, when ESPN journalists conducted an investigation and noticed a statistical anomaly, according to which the best players at the US Open were allegedly “slipped” by weak opponents in the opening match.
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Before the start of the 2011 US Open, ESPN published a material that caused a great stir in the tennis community. The publication’s observers took the draws of the last 41 TBS (10 Australian Opens, Roland Garros and US Opens, as well as 11 Wimbledons) and evaluated the level of the opponents based on the starting circle for the first and second ranked players. The average rating for all Slams was 80.5, but the US Open deviated noticeably from other majors. At the start of the tournament in New York, the opponents of the first and second rackets of the world for 10 years were players with an average rating of 98.5 for women and 97.2 for men.
In 2011, a scandal erupted over the US Open draw.
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Andrew Swift, former president of the American Statistical Association’s sports division, confirmed that the sample of processed data is sufficient to claim that the US Open brackets are not formed randomly. He gave the most striking example of an anomaly.
American tennis player Scoville Jenkins had the lowest rating of all participants at the 2004 US Open, but in the first round he lost to second seed Andy Roddick. In the 2007 season, Jenkins became the fourth worst among participants, in the opening match he had to play with the world’s number one racket, Roger Federer.
From a pure math standpoint, with a random grid, the probability of Jenkins hitting one of the top 2 players was just over 2%, and the probability of such a scenario occurring twice was less than 1%.
American Coco Vandewey found herself in a similar situation early in her career, but only once. At the 2008 US Open, 16-year-old Vandewey received a wild card and was ranked 518th in the WTA rankings. She was the third-worst player in the group and fell to world number two Jelena Jankovic in the first round.
Another very “suspicious” case was recorded at the US Open – 2009. 18-year-old American Devin Britton did not win a single match at the ATP level, but received a wildcard from the organizers and turned out to be the worst tennis player in the group. In the first round he faced the world ranking leader Roger Federer.
Jenkins, Vandewey and Britton, unsurprisingly, lost to their more established opponents without a chance, but for some of them, meeting the tennis superstars on Centre Court in front of a full night session was the event of a lifetime. The only exception was Vandewey, who was a top 10 WTA player and twice reached the TBS semi-finals, and was also sometimes a top 2 seed in smaller competitions.
Coco Vandewey, 16, at the US Open – 2008
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The cases of Jenkins, Vandewey and Britton were the most resonant, but there were other examples where the best tennis players in the first round of the 128 participants in the tournament fell with enviable consistency, if not the worst in rating, then at least not included in the top 100. ESPN tried to get comments from Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Jelena Jankovic, Serena Williams, Caroline Wozniacki and Kim Clijsters on similar situations, but they refused to comment.
Of course, anomalies occur in sport and in any walk of life, but in the US Open draw they seemed very suspicious.
“The US Open numbers are strange in and of themselves. They are also strange compared to other ‘Helmets.’ It turns out to be a double weirdness. There is something fishy there,” Swift said.
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Bleacher Report journalists conducted their investigation and suggested that the creator of the computer draw program created an algorithm in which lower-ranked players “gravitate” toward the top spots more than those in the middle. But all this remained at the level of theories. The US Open draw software is provided by Information & Display Systems. It also offers a similar product to the Australian Open, where no deviations from the norm were observed. They ruled out some features and flaws of the program specifically for the New York TBS.
US Open officials also rejected all allegations that the tournament draw could be rigged.
“What is the benefit to the US Open? I don’t see any. The tournament has no interest in taking that risk. None at all. I don’t know how to explain it. Maybe we can talk about this again after I’ve consulted with someone who can give me a little bit more analysis of how something like this could happen. But anomalies do occur, and all indications are that we’re dealing with a case like this,” said the tournament’s head umpire and one of the directors of the United States Tennis Association (USTA), Brian Early.
“If we had done 10,000 US Opens, we probably would have seen a statistical average, but they only looked at the last 10 years of tournaments. I don’t know what else to say. We have no plans to do any research after this material. There will also be no changes to the draw system,” said US Open chief communications officer Chris Widmaier.
Rafael Nadal and Brian Early at the 2011 US Open draw ceremony
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In fact, there is really not much benefit from a “fictional” draw for the top 2 players in the first round. In theory, the organizers might want to minimize any risk of popular tennis stars being eliminated from the start of the tournament. But players like Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal or Serena Williams in their prime were able to easily overcome any player outside the top 32. Perhaps some opponents would have had to try a little harder and three or four sets instead of the usual two or three, but the elimination of the legends would have seemed like a fantasy scenario. Moreover, the alleged “scam” had a short-term effect and would only work in the first round. Already in the second round there are practically no opponents with a frankly low rating and the field looks quite normal.
ESPN’s publication did not have any legal consequences, but it is worth noting that the statistical anomaly at the US Open in the draw of the top 2 players ceased after 2011. It is true that a new problem arose, somewhat reminiscent of the previous one.
In 1996, the organizers of the US Open allowed themselves a Wimbledon-style audacity and formed the group based on the so-called “spectator interest” instead of the ATP rankings. Then, the Russian Yevgeny Kafelnikov suffered especially, being excluded from the top 4. In this case, clear preferences were given to the Americans Pete Sampras and Andre Agassi, who were supposedly brought to the confrontation in the final. Kafelnikov did not remain silent, he criticized the leaders of American tennis and boycotted the tournament.
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After the scandal with Kafelnikov, the US Open organizers quickly returned to the traditional ranking-based draw, but they were not spared from accusations of “fraud.” At the beginning of the 21st century, these were the same preferences for the top two players after the ESPN material. And after 2011, the US Open was suspected of again doing something similar to the 1996 incident. That is, they artificially “get” a net that is beneficial to them.
The most striking examples of “suspicious” moments could be observed in the women’s singles match between Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova. From 2015 to 2020, Serena and her sister Venus always ended up in the same half of the US Open draw (with the exception of the 2017 season, when Serena went on maternity leave and missed the tournament). The sisters’ meeting at the New York Major aroused great interest among fans. The arena is completely full and many more people are glued to the TV screens.
In the middle of the last decade, Venus slowed down on the court. Even if she was included in the rankings, she was rated low and could reach Serena in the quarterfinals or earlier. The fact that she was constantly in the same half of the grid with her sister from 2015 to 2020 can be attributed to coincidence, but again, it is statically anomalous. Serena and Venus met twice at the US Open during this period: in 2015 and 2018, the younger sister defeated the older sister in the quarterfinals and third round, respectively.
The Williams sisters at the 2018 US Open
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According to Sharapova, a rather strange situation arose after the Russian served her doping ban in 2017. Since then, Maria has participated in the US Open three times. She immediately got tennis superstars wherever possible. The fact is that during the suspension Sharapova’s rating dropped significantly. At the US Open 2017 she received a wildcard, being the 146th racket in the world. And in the first round she faced the second racket in the world, Simona Halep, who criticized her during her suspension for using meldonium. It is difficult to imagine a more highly rated match in the opening phase of the women’s draw. Perhaps Sharapova and Serena would be paired together, but, as mentioned above, Williams went on maternity leave that season and did not play in New York.
It is noteworthy that Sharapova sensationally defeated Halep (6-4, 4-6, 6-3) and reached the fourth round of the first Slam after a year and a half break.
In 2018, Sharapova significantly improved her results on the court and took 22nd place at the US Open. Even if they wanted to, the organizers could not pair her with Halep, Serena or any of the other stars in the first round. But in the 2019 season, such an opportunity appeared, if we assume that there really was “manipulation” in the results of the draw.
The last meeting between Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams took place in the first round of the 2019 US Open
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Sharapova has slowed down on the court. She came to the 2019 US Open as the 87th player in the world. And already in the first round she faced the eighth seed Serena Williams, who defeated Maria 6-1, 6-1. This meeting between the Russian and the American was the only one after Sharapova’s suspension and before both tennis players ended their careers. It took place precisely at the US Open. The public is delighted, the television audience has increased.
A first-round matchup between Sharapova and Williams was possible, but mathematically highly unlikely. However, the US Open organisers have nothing to show for it. There are various theories, but there is still no evidence that they are somehow manipulating the draw. Although the behind-closed-doors procedure and some strange pairings of opponents in the first round do raise certain suspicions.
