Is France the clear favourite? Analysts’ schedules for Belgium and Portugal in the round of 16
Nikita Paglazov July 1, 2024, 07:00 Moscow time Audio version: Your browser does not support the audio element.
A first-class rival awaits the Tricolores. Is there a possibility of a sensation?
Today, July 1, the third round of the Euro 2024 playoffs will take place. We will see a super match between France and Belgium, as well as a match between Portugal and Slovenia. What are the teams’ chances of reaching the quarter-finals? We are studying.
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France – Belgium
Main poster of the round of 16. But both teams have questions about the game. France has the coolest team in the Euro Cup. However, in the group stage, Didier Deschamps’ team scored only two goals (one of them an own goal). The French also lost first place in the group, behind Austria. So far the team is not living up to expectations.
Belgium entered Euro 2024 as the dark favourite. Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku are still in the squad. But this is no longer the “golden” team of 2018. And for Domenico Tedesco, the Euro was the first major tournament. In general, no one knew what to expect from Belgium. In the group with Slovakia, Romania and Ukraine, the team did not show the best result: only second place. The Belgians managed to lose to the Slovaks (0:1) and in the match against the Ukrainians (0:0) they were one step away from failure. If Sergei Rebrov’s team had scored a goal at the end, Belgium would have gone home.
Belgium’s selection for Euro 2024
Photo: Justin Setterfield/Getty Images
The betting houses believe more in France’s passage. The probability that Deschamps’ team will win in regulation time is 1.93 (taking into account extra time and penalties: 1.40). Belgium is the loser of the pair. You can bet on their victory in regulation time with an odds of 5.10 (taking into account extra time and penalties: 2.95).
Opta analysts agree with the bookmaker’s statements. They estimate that the probability of France reaching the quarter-finals is 69% and Belgium 31%.
Portugal – Slovenia
It’s not the most attractive sign. However, in reality everything is much more interesting. Portugal took first place in Group F. However, in the last round it managed to lose to Georgia (0-2). Roberto Martinez sent a semi-reserve, but even this line-up was obliged to win. And in the first round Portugal narrowly defeated the Czech Republic, scoring the decisive goal in the 90+2 minute. The Portuguese are not as monolithic as they seem.
Cristiano Ronaldo
Photo: Getty Images
And an even bigger problem for Martinez’s team is their opponent in the round of 16. This is Slovenia, which is not afraid of top teams. In the group stage, Matjaz Kek’s team drew three times: with Denmark (1-1), Serbia (1-1) and England (0-0). All three teams are stronger than the Slovenians in composition. Did this scare Slovenia? No. It is unlikely that they will now fall apart against Portugal. In addition, Keck’s team found themselves in the playoffs of a major tournament for the first time in history. Great motivation to continue surprising.
Although the bookmakers don’t believe in Slovenia at all. You can bet on Portugal’s victory with an odds of 1.40 (1.16, taking into account extra time and penalties). And pass further than the Slovenians in regulation time: 10.0 (5.40, taking into account extra time and penalties). Significant difference. Opta also considers Portugal as a clear favorite: 76% of its victory compared to 24% for Slovenia.
The expansion of the euro helped Portugal win in 2016. Is it worth increasing the number of teams even further?
The Euro format with 24 teams is a utopia. A tournament with 32 teams would be ideal.
