There is only one match left to play in the women’s draw of the US Open, the most important one. The US Open will have a new winner, who will be determined in the battle between the world number two, Aryna Sabalenka, and the number six in the WTA ranking, Jessica Pegula. In this case, both tennis players deservedly reached the decisive match.
Pegula had a tougher time than Sabalenka. But it couldn’t be otherwise, because second place is preferable to sixth. The American did not avoid meeting world number one Iga Swiatek. However, this did not bother Jessica, and in the quarter-finals she defeated the unusually erroneous Polish player 6:2, 6:4.
Jessica thus broke the curse of the quarter-finals at TBS – before that, there were six defeats in six games at the corresponding stage. And in the semi-finals, Pegula demonstrated not only her skill, but also her character. For another tennis player, the result 1:6, 0:2 in the match against Karolina Muchova would have meant the death knell. But not for Pegula, who won a convincing victory 1:6, 6:4, 6:2.
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According to Jessica, at the beginning of the season she could not even imagine that at 30 years old she would reach the final of a major for the first time in her career, and even a home final for her. “This is something incredible, a childhood dream, this is what I always wanted. There is a lot of work behind this, you can’t even imagine how much. For me that’s everything…
“I am very happy to be in the final. But I came here with the intention of winning the title. If you had told me at the beginning of the year that I would be in the final of the US Open I would have laughed a lot, but then I didn’t think of something like that. Being able to overcome all the difficulties and say that I have a great chance on Saturday is what all players strive for. And they do this in my country, at my home Grand Slam tournament. It’s perfect, really,” he said at a press conference.
Jessica Pegula at the US Open 2024
Photo: Sarah Stier/Getty Images
And with all these performances, Sabalenka will still be the favorite in the match. If both players approach the match in top condition – and they will, there is no doubt – Arina will attack and Jessica will defend and look for counterattacking options. The Belarusian will surely be helped by her serve, which has been working very well lately. Opponents have not yet figured out how to deal with Sabalenka’s power. In six matches at the current US Open, she lost only one set (as did Pegula) – to Ekaterina Alexandrova in the third round. But it would be naive to expect Arina to suddenly make mistakes. After all, this is her fourth TBS final, so the two-time Australian Open champion will definitely not be weak in the knees.
Taking into account the US Open, Sabalenka is on an 11-match winning streak, while Pegula has already won 15 of her last 16 matches. The only defeat was suffered by Arina, who won the final in Cincinnati 6:3, 7:5. Jessica remembers that defeat and will surely learn from it, so the Belarusian must have a backup plan in case the events of the match do not go according to her scenario.
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“She’s a great hard court player, one of the best in the world. But I think I am too. She had an incredible performance in Cincinnati, but I still felt like she had a chance. I hope that on Saturday she doesn’t serve as well, or maybe a little bit worse (laughs).
“I know I have a game, I know I can bother her. But I have to be aggressive, make her move, serve smart and put pressure on her serve. In general, play your game, which is what I do. Hopefully this Saturday I can implement it and decide the outcome of the match in my favor,” Pegula said at a press conference.
Sabalenka’s serve is truly impressive. 235 aces – this is exactly her figure for the 2024 season. Only Karolina Pliskova, who served 244 times, and Elena Rybakina, who with her 325 aces plays in a separate league, have more. Usually, Arina wins more than half of the points even with the second serve (51.1%). Of the top twenty, only Iga Swiatek (55.3%) and our Anna Kalinskaya (50.6%) and Diana Schneider (51.6%) break the 50% barrier in points with the second serve.
Arina Sabalenka at the US Open – 2024
Photo: Matthew Stockman/Getty Images
Both players have something to fight for, and not just the prize money. Although this is, of course, an important point: the loser of the final will receive $1.8 million, and the winner will receive double that amount, i.e. $3.6 million. Moreover, regardless of the outcome of the final, Sabalenka will remain the second-ranked player in the world, and Pegula will move up three places and return to third place, displacing Elena Rybakina, Yasmine Paolini and Corey Gauff.
Sabalenko’s stats are, of course, astonishing. Arina has won 26 of her last 27 matches at hard majors. If she wins, she will be second only to Venus Williams (7), Iga Swiatek (5) and Naomi Osaka (4) in terms of the number of TBS wins among active tennis players. And she will become the first tennis player since Angelique Kerber in 2016 to win both hard Slams in one season. Pegula could become the first tennis player since Svetlana Kuznetsova at Roland Garros 2009 to surpass the first and second WTA numbers on her way to the title. And the last time Maria Sharapova did this at the US Open was in 2006.
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Sabalenka also has a clear advantage in personal matches: 5-2. Nevertheless, the Belarusian tennis player understands that it will not be easy for her to reach the final. “I would say that she is playing her best tennis and feels that she is back in shape. She won the tournament (“thousand” in Toronto. – Note from the “Championship”), then she reached the final, now she is here, in another final. So she is in incredible form. There will be another great battle with her. I can’t wait to play against her,” the Belarusian told the WTA press service.
Finally, a funny pattern. Sabalenka’s path is very reminiscent of another Belarusian, Victoria Azarenka, only with an 11-year turn. Will Pegula really win?
And on social media, Arina, hinting at last year’s final with Cori Gauff, wrote: “Let’s try again.”
Will it work?
The final of the US Open – 2024 Jessica Pegula (USA, 6) – Arina Sabalenka (Belarus, 2) will take place on Saturday, September 7, and will start no earlier than 23:00 Moscow time.
