The fourth round of the Russian Cup has just ended, and it is time to return to the Russian Championship. On Sunday, September 21, the main match of the ninth round of the Russian Premier League will take place between Spartak and Dynamo Moscow. The capital derby will be held at the Lukoil Arena in Moscow, and the kick-off is scheduled for 16:30 Moscow time.
What do bookmakers expect from the match RPL “Spartak” – “Dynamo” M on September 22, 2024?
Despite the seemingly similar level of the opponents, bookmakers give a slight preference to the home team in their predictions. Bets are offered on Spartak’s victory with a rate of 1.97, which is approximately 50% probability. Dynamo’s victory is slightly more likely than a draw and has a coefficient of 3.80 (about 26% probability).
At the same time, analysts believe that the Moscow derby will be productive. A total of under 2.5 goals is estimated at a rate of 2.40, and a total of over 2.5 goals is estimated at a rate of 1.62. If both teams score, the rate will be 1.58 (over 60% probability). In this case, the most likely experts see the result 1:1 or 2:1 in favor of the home team.
Analysis and prediction for the match of the 9th round of the Russian Championship “Spartak” – “Dynamo” M (09/22/2024)
A derby of any level is always about struggle and emotions. Often, the winner is determined by small things during the meeting. However, in this case Spartak has more advantages and is seen as a slight favorite. At least on paper. And the first reason is obvious: the club will play at its own stadium.
The Red and Whites are playing much better at home this season. For example, out of four home games in the Russian championship, they won three and drew 0-0. The victories, by the way, were dry: over “Wings of the Soviets” (3-0), “Fakel” (3-0) and “Rubin” (1-0). The draw came to Akhmat (0-0), which was lucky.
The second reason is the overall state of the capital team. With the arrival of Dejan Stankovic, the situation has changed considerably. There are far fewer scandals and football is more effective. Hence the corresponding results. Newcomer Ezequiel Barco is doing very well, Manfred Ugalde is improving. In short, not everything is bad.
The third nail in the coffin is the history of confrontations. In recent years, Spartak has learned to play Dynamo. We do not count friendly matches, but in the last six official derbies the red-and-whites have won five and lost only one. Moreover, one of the victories came this season under the new coach: 3-0 in the first round of the Russian Cup.
How can Dynamo Moscow fight back? Probably nothing. Marcel Lička’s team narrowly beat Dynamo Makhachkala in the Russian Cup during the week (2-2, 5-3 on penalties), and the only regular-time victory in September came against Akhmat (4-2). We had to be content with just one point against Orenburg (2-2) and Paris NN (0-0).
It is easy to see that the blue and white defence is not always up to par. This was predicted at the beginning of the season, because 19-year-old defenders often appear in the centre of defence. Youngsters, as we remember, tend to make mistakes. And even the seemingly experienced Paraguayans Roberto Fernandez and Fabian Balbuena lack stability.
I think there is no need to beat around the bush here. A head-to-head victory for Spartak looks tempting. Dejan Stankovic’s gang has recovered, the coach protects his players, the newcomers are getting fit and integrating into the system. They should be in high spirits after the defeat of Krylya Sovetov in the Russian Cup and calmly beat Dynamo, whose performance is currently chaotic.
Tender: Spartak wins at 1.97.
