The venues for Euro 2028 and Euro 2032 are now known: in the first case it will be Great Britain and Ireland, in the second it will be Italy and Turkey. In general, there was little opposition to this, unlike the unsuccessful 24-team format used since 2016. The current number of participants, highly controversial and illogical, not only leads to an overloaded group stage with not the most interesting matches, but also violates the principles of fairness.
In 2016, Ronaldo’s team took advantage of playing in Group F
Sports integrity relies heavily on information symmetry: the idea that all teams should have the same knowledge of what their opponents’ outcomes might be. Therefore, national championship matches are played in unison on the last day of each league season to avoid giving an unfair advantage to teams playing last. However, this principle does not apply to the 24 teams in the European Championship. The 16 teams advance to the second round (the first two in each group and four of the six best third parties) in a process that sacrifices sporting integrity.
This is confirmed by examples from previous years. In 2016, Portugal became champions. But few people will remember with what grind the team got to the playoffs. In the first matches, the Portuguese drew with Iceland (1-1) and Austria (0-0), but in the last round the Pyrenees had a certain margin over their rivals from other groups: Turkey and Albania. These teams scored three points each, but scored goals and conceded negative goals. Therefore, to advance to the round of 16, it was enough for Portugal to draw with the Hungarians (they were also happy with the draw), and that is what happened (3-3).
In 2016, Portugal, led by Ronaldo, played against the Hungarians according to the expected scenario.
Photo: Michael Steele/Getty Images
A completely different scenario would have occurred if Ronaldo and company had played, say, in Group A. In the event of a tie, Portugal would have been left with three points and the risk of being left out of the list of the lucky ones who made it to the playoffs. . This fear could have forced Fernando Santos’ boys to take more risks to avoid being eliminated from the tournament. But being in Group F gave the eventual champions an advantage. It is noteworthy that at Euro 2020 they were again in group F, they also tied (2-2) with France in the last round and advanced to the next round from third place. It should probably come as no surprise that at Euro 2024 Portugal once again “reserved” their place in Group F, but this time they reached the playoffs early.
And they gave Georgia the holiday:
History shows that being in the last group of the alphabet significantly increases a team’s chances of success. Apart from two European Championships and three World Championships (1986-1994), a model was used in which 16 of the 24 teams qualified for the second round. In all five tournaments, the advantage was held by the team that ranked third in the last group to compete.
The odds of a draw in the Romania-Slovakia match fell to a very low level of 2.0
The format for determining the third best teams increases the risk of collusion between teams, even if it is implicit. “If the last match of the group stage is between teams with a win and a loss in the first two rounds, a draw could benefit both,” highlighted Alex Krumer, professor of sports economics at Molde University College, about the trend. obvious.
Something similar happened in the 1982 World Cup and was called the “Shame of Gijón.” In the final group match, West Germany and Austria knew they would both advance and that Algeria would be eliminated if the Germans won 1-0. In the end, this is what happened: after Horst Hrubesch’s quick goal, the teams openly “rolled cotton.”
A similar situation occurred at Euro 2024. In group E, Romania and Slovakia knew that a draw in their match would guarantee both teams access to the playoffs, so the bookmaker’s odds for a draw in the match fell to an abnormal level of 2.0; A result with a value of at least 3.00 is accepted. No one was surprised that the rivals exchanged goals in the first half and in the rest imitated a soccer match. As a result, all teams in group E scored four points, but Ukraine was eliminated. At the same time, the teams qualified for the playoffs with three points.
The bet on a draw between Romania and Slovakia worked without a hitch
Photo: Stu Forster/Getty Images
The complexities of the predetermined and unbalanced 24-team grid don’t end there. While four of the six group winners have the advantage of playing against the third-placed teams (supposedly the weakest teams), the other two winners will have to face the second-placed teams.
The sad thing is that these shortcomings will soon be seen more frequently due to FIFA’s manic desire to constantly increase the number of matches to generate more television revenue. Starting in 2026, the World Cup, to the delight of the director of the International Football Federation, Gianni Infantino, will expand to 48 teams with a similar format to the Euro Cup, only there will be twice as many countries. 32 teams will advance to the playoff phase: the first two in each group plus 8 of the 12 teams that finished in third place.
A successful experiment with 32 teams in the Women’s World Cup
The expansion of 16 teams was not advisable, at least for those who had enjoyed the high level of competition from the beginning. There is a solution for the European Championship: a further expansion of the tournament. Increasing the number of teams to 32 will restore transparency and sporting integrity to the format. This represents the correct number for the tournament from a playoff perspective (chance of halving) and should not be affected when determining the third best teams. For example, the organizers of the Copa América 2024 did exactly the same, increasing the number of participants from 12 to 16.
Speaking of Kopa:
What do we have now? Four of the six third-place finishers can advance even if they only add three points. In this sense, the group stage is full of games where there is room for error and, as a result, many weak teams will get into the playoffs. At the same time, the 32-team tournament excludes the appearance of random passengers in the round of 16 due to the lack of a solution for third places. Most importantly, it will bring simplicity back to the tournament, with a direct emphasis on football and not on secret calculations and the temptation to negotiate a deal.
If the format is increased to 32 teams in the Euro Cup, more stars will be seen
Photo: Fran Santiago/Getty Images
The disadvantages of a tournament with 32 teams include a decrease in quality due to the increase in the number of teams. However, the difference in quality between the top 24 and 32 teams in Europe is almost certainly smaller than between the 16 and 24, given that significant expansion has already occurred. Therefore, there is no need to fear a drop in ratings, including because more attention will be drawn to the stars of these teams. For example, few would care to see Norway with Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard at Euro 2024.
Concerns that the host countries will not be able to cope with the influx of more teams and fans should not be given much thought, after Qatar two years ago hosted a 32-team tournament using just eight stadiums. There will be more games, but so far no one sees the games as close. The European Championship should learn the lessons of the 2023 Women’s World Cup, which involved 32 teams instead of 24. The quality of the matches did not decline, the group matches mattered more and were considered a great success by experts.
Alternative opinion:
The expansion of the Euro Cup to 24 teams is exciting
