The start of England and Spain in the Euro Cup playoffs. Further modeling the probability of its passage.
Kirill Zakatchenko June 30, 2024, 07:00 Moscow time Audio version: Your browser does not support the audio element.
These teams are considered the undisputed favorites in their pairings, but Slovakia and Georgia have already presented surprises in the tournament.
New day in the Euro Cup: new round of 16 pairs. This time the British will try to beat the Slovaks and the Spanish will try to beat the Georgian footballers. Who has a chance of advancing to the quarterfinals?
About the first matches of the round of 16 – here:
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England – Slovakia
England qualified for the playoffs from the top of the group. There is a result, but Gareth Southgate’s team plays rather boring football. The English scored only two goals in three group games. And this was enough for them to take first place in the quartet. The English team defeated Serbia (1-0), after which they drew with Denmark (1-1) and Slovenia (0-0). On the other hand, three years ago, the British also scored only two goals in the group (they then scored seven points) and then reached the final of the European Championship.
The Slovaks found themselves in a group where all teams scored four points. In this situation, we had to calculate the goal difference. Result: Slovakia advanced from third place to the round of 16. They beat Belgium (1-0), lost to Ukraine (1-2) and shared points with Romania (1-1). The Slovaks have never reached the quarter-finals of the European Championship since they became an independent nation. And they reached the playoffs only in 2016, when they lost in the round of 16 to Germany (0-3).
Slovakia celebrates goal against Romania
Photo: Getty Images
The bookmakers do not believe in the Slovak team at all. The odds on their victory in regular time are 10.50 (for a win taking into account extra time and penalties – 5.20). Now compare these numbers with those of the British. The odds on their victory are 1.45 (for a win taking into account extra time and penalties – 1.17).
Opta analysts have modelled the outcome of the match: England’s probability of advancing to the quarter-finals is 82%, Slovakia – 18%. Football Meets Data believes the Slovaks a little more: their probability of progressing is 28%, England – 72%.
What point of view do you support?
Spain – Georgia
The Spanish team is the only team that has passed the group stage with the maximum number of points possible. Furthermore, he did not miss a single goal. The Spanish defeated the Croatians (3-0) and calmly beat Italy (1-0). The result of the second match should not deceive, since Luis de la Fuente’s team had a huge advantage. In the final round, the Spanish presented their second team, which defeated Albania (1-0).
Few believed that the Georgian team would be among the participants in the playoffs. For her, reaching the final of the European Championship was already a great success. However, the Georgian footballers went even further: they reached the round of 16. And this despite the fact that after two rounds the team only scored one point. Georgia played the last group match against the formidable Portugal and beat one of the Euro Cup favorites 2-0. In addition, the Georgian national team includes the top scorer of the tournament, Georges Mikautadze, and the excellent goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili (leader in the number of saves).
Georgian footballers were surprised in the group stage of the Euro Cup
Photo: Fake Images
Spain is the clear favourite for the upcoming match according to bookmakers. The odds for their victory are 1.20, for Georgia – 17.00, for a draw in regular time – 6.80. According to Opta, the probability of Spain reaching the quarter-finals is 83%, Georgia – 17%. What do the data from Football Meets tell us? Spain’s chance of progressing is 79%, Georgia’s – 21%.
Advanced statistics for the group stage of the European Championship:
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