On Saturday, July 27, the first medals were awarded at the Paris Olympic Games. The first gold of the tournament went to the Chinese team, as did the second. However, the whole fight for the unofficial medal table is still ahead.
And everyone is concerned with the question: who can win it?
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Gracenote Forecast
Traditionally, the statistics agency Nielsen, Gracenote, has presented its forecast for the medal results based on the results of the main world and continental competitions. In it, the top three repeat forecasts for the 2020 Olympic Games: the United States, China and Great Britain.
According to the figures given, the Americans can win 112 medals in Paris (39 – 32 – 41), one prize less than in Tokyo.
In terms of the number of gold medals, the Chinese team will once again threaten the United States’ leading position. China has won one fewer gold medal than the Americans in 2021 (38 versus 39). A more modest success is expected in Paris: 34 gold awards. However, China remains the only country that has a chance of catching up with the United States in this indicator.
For the French, the Olympic Games on home soil could be their best since 1900. The country then won 115 medals (and this despite a rather sparse competition programme more than a century ago). At the Tokyo Games, the team won only 33 medals, but in Paris they are expected to win almost twice as many prizes of various denominations and almost three times as many gold medals (27 versus 10).
If Australia, which the agency predicts should round out the top five, wins 54 medals, then the 2024 Games will be the most successful for this team since the home Games in 2000.
Gracenote Medals Overall Standings Prediction
PlaceCountryGoldSilverBronzeTotal number of medals1USA3932411122China342725863Great Britain172026634France272112605Australia15231654
Sports Illustrated Prediction
The American sports magazine Sports Illustrated, in its forecast, immediately distributed prizes in each individual discipline.
Interestingly, there are no neutral athletes from Russia among the winners. But there are two athletes marked with AIN in the list of Americans: the gold is planned for the Belarusian taekwondo athlete Georgiy Gurtsiev in the category up to 58 kg, and the silver in the trampoline can be won by his compatriot Ivan Litvinovich.
In the overall medal standings, the United States takes the victory by a large margin, as does Gracenote: 43 gold awards, 36 silver and 36 bronze.
According to forecasts, the Americans will win the most Olympic medals in swimming (9 – 14 – 6) and athletics (19 – 7 – 5). The most famous personal medal winners of the team will be the famous swimmers Katie Ledecky (two golds and one silver) and Regan Smith (gold and two silver), as well as gymnast Simone Biles (three golds and one bronze) and track and field athlete Noah Lyles (three golds).
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China, as predicted by Gracenote, is in second place. In Paris, Chinese high jumpers are expected to triumph again, as well as success for badminton players, gymnasts and weightlifters.
There is only one difference in the projected distribution of medal places between Sports Illustrated and Gracenote: the positions of France and Great Britain.
Sports Illustrated Overall Medal Forecast
PlaceCountryGoldSilverBronzeTotal number of medals1USA4336361152China342227833France182818644Great Britain292014635Australia15172658
The main intrigue of the medal table.
According to forecasts, the position of the United States in the medal table is unshakable: it will be impossible to catch up with the national team in terms of the total number of awards. For the Americans, this victory could become the eighth in a row in the overall standings of the Summer Games. The last time the United States finished second was at the 1992 Olympics. Then the Americans lost to the United Team of the Republics of the former USSR.
China’s second place in the overall standings is also beyond doubt. The team has consistently held this position over the past four Olympic Games. At the home tournament in Beijing, it even beat the United States for the gold medal.
Chinese table tennis team
Photo: Vladimir Rys/Getty Images
It is traditional and natural that at home Games the host team wins more than usual and, consequently, climbs higher in the overall ranking. Houses and walls help and motivation reaches sky high. Therefore, according to American forecasts, French athletes can win twice as many medals as at the Tokyo Games. Analysts differ only in the number of gold awards. It is clear that the main intrigue will revolve around the third place in the overall ranking.
If France can overtake Great Britain, who have not finished outside the top three since 2008, it will be an incredible step forward for the hosts. In the 21st century, the best result for the French was sixth place at Sydney 2000.
As for the Russians, even if the 15 athletes admitted to the Games in neutral status had won a dozen gold medals, the AIN line would still not have appeared in the medal table. The IOC has deprived Russia of this right.
All of ours in Paris:
Our team in Paris 2024: the full line-up of Russians at the Olympic Games
