As the European Football Championship heats up in Germany, we would like to remind you that there are other interesting competitions in the world. For example, on the other side of the world they are preparing for the Copa América. Before understanding the expectations of the bookmakers and making our own predictions, let’s take a closer look at the tournament.
Copa América: where it will be played, dates and finals
The Copa América 2024 is the 48th edition of the South American football tournament organized by CONMEBOL. The start is scheduled for June 21 and the final is scheduled for July 15. Initially, Ecuador was supposed to be the host country, but due to its refusal, the honor fell to the United States.
In addition to the 10 participating teams from South America, six other CONCACAF representatives from North America, Central America and the Caribbean will participate in the tournament. As a result, 16 teams are divided into four groups, four in each. And today we will talk about group A.
Lionel Messi steals the show
Group A included the teams from Canada, Peru and Chile. But above all it is interesting because of the presence of the Argentine team, which won the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, and one of the heroes was Lionel Messi. Therefore, in the next Copa América the betting houses expect a successful performance from the Argentines.
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If analysts consider the Albiceleste to be the favorite of the tournament as a whole with odds of 2.80 (around 36% probability), then let’s imagine what the odds are for the quartet to win. Let us not languish. First place is estimated with a coefficient of 1.26 (79% probability) and a simple exit from the group is estimated with a coefficient of 1.01 (99% probability).
Specifically, feats are expected from Messi. A minimum of three goals by a striker in all possible Copa América matches, including extra time, is available at bookmakers with an odds of 1.47, which is approximately 68% probability. However, something suggests that the Inter Miami player will be able to reach the mark already in the group stage.
Dávila will be expelled from CSKA alone
The Chilean team, according to analysts, has the highest probability among the other participants of taking second place in Group A. The event is estimated with a coefficient of 2.40, that is, approximately 41% probability. And if the Chileans add at least four points at the end of the group stage, the odds will be from 1.51 to 66% probability.
However, the composition of the Chilean team is no longer as solid as before. Arturo Vidal retired from the national team, Claudio Bravo is already over 40 years old and Alexis Sánchez is about to leave Inter, where he became a rotation player. It turns out that Víctor Dávila of CSKA will have to take the blame for everyone. The forward’s statistics are not bad, but he will hardly be able to surprise Argentina.
Peru and Canada are outsiders
Betting houses expect much less from the Peru and Canada teams. The Peruvian team’s chances of qualifying from the group are estimated at 3.00, which is equivalent to a 33% chance. The Canadians’ chances for the playoffs are estimated at 3.50, which is even less likely. The claims for third place for both teams are also proportional: 2.75 and 3.00 respectively.
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Such expectations and assumptions are, of course, well founded. The Peruvian squad is less known and the coach has only been working with the players for a short time. At the same time, they failed to start qualifying for the 2026 World Cup, losing in four of six rounds. Canada will make its debut in the Copa América. The well-known Jesse Marsh is in charge, but even for him it will be difficult to prepare for a month and a half of work.
Prediction and bet on Group A of the Copa América 2024 in the USA
In our opinion, the bet “the Argentine team will concede less than 1.5 goals” is worth considering. On the one hand, it seems quite risky. On the other hand, Lionel Scaloni’s Argentines show a decent defensive game. It is significant that in 9 out of 10 matches in 2023 they won with a clean sheet, and in four matches in 2024 they only lost twice.
The second point is head-to-head confrontations with these opponents. For example, the last time the Peruvian national team scored against Argentina was in 2016. The Chilean national team, of course, seems more competitive, but in the last 10 games with the Argentines it could not score more than one goal.
Team Canada is an enigma. You can expect anything from debutants. However, the last friendly matches speak against the Canadians. On June 9 he played a friendly match with the French team. We managed to keep the score at 0-0, but in 90 minutes we did not take a single shot on goal.
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The option “the Argentine team will score more than 5.5 goals” also seems tempting. In 2024, judging by the friendly matches, Lionel Scaloni’s men will make good use of their opportunities. 3-0 with El Salvador, 3-1 with Costa Rica, 1-0 with Ecuador and 4-1 with Guatemala confirm it.
Of course, in the 2024 Cup the rivals will be sharper, more motivated and more careful. However, the fact that the tournament is being held in the United States speaks in favor of a great total. Lionel Messi, from whom, of course, goals are expected, will not have to readjust and get used to it, since he now plays for Inter Miami and is in the United States.
Bet 1: Argentina will concede less than 1.5 goals in 2.10.
Bet 2: Argentina will score more than 5.5 goals in 1.72.
