“Currently, exchange rate dynamics fit into the framework of normal market volatility due to low liquidity parameters,” Alexander Dzhioev, an analyst at Alfa Capital Management Company, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta. “The reduction of the trade surplus in the first half of the year also act as triggers, as well as the end of the following tax period, in addition, the purchase operations of part of the business from foreigners are affected.
But, according to the expert, the main macroeconomic factors indicate the potential for a strengthening of the Russian currency. This is due to relatively low inflation, rising oil prices, and faster-than-expected GDP growth.
In addition, Alexander Dzhioev did not rule out a new increase in the key rate by the Central Bank. He explained this by the fact that currently consumer prices have not yet taken into account the weakening of the ruble. In the long term, the devaluation may have a pro-inflationary impact. It is known, the expert recalled, that a fall in the ruble exchange rate by 10% leads to an increase in inflation by 0.5%.
“Taking into account all these factors, there is reason to expect a fall of the dollar to 80-85 rubles”, – said the economist.
However, adds Alexander Dzhioev, in the event of a rapid expansion of imports and a reduction in export earnings, the dollar may well reach the level of 100 rubles.
