In Russia, a single day of voting has ended.
Photo: Vladimir VELENGURIN
We discussed the development of the elections and the preliminary results with the director of political analysis of the Institute of Social Marketing (INSOMAR), Viktor Poturemsky, and with the political scientist and expert of the Institute of Experts in Social Research (EISR), Anna Fedorova.
-How would you rate the participation?
V. Poturemsky:
– Let’s highlight the leading regions in terms of participation: Moscow, Moscow region, Kuzbass, Chukotka, Yakutia. All. They showed a very high participation. But, in general, the participation according to the forecasts of the main sociological institutes is 30-40%. This is what happened.
– These elections took place with a general feeling of calm. Did you also have this impression or was there any surprise?
A. Fedorova:
– This is true. Very calm elections. All the microsensations that existed during the day disappeared before they had time to inflate. It was little things: somewhere someone took a ballot, somewhere an incomprehensible safe package. But these are completely isolated situations in a uniform context.
V. Poturemsky:
– I would not speak of calm, but of content and focus on the regional agenda. Please note that we did not have a federal election campaign. It is necessary to compare regions with each other, taking into account this circumstance. In regions where there were elections of senior officials and legislative assemblies, the main specificity of this campaign is to focus on discussing their problems.
– Why were all the current bosses re-elected with a concrete result? Because there was no competition or it was a special operation and people decided: let’s solve it first and then restore order here?
V. Poturemsky:
– This is a complex sum with several terms. There comes a point where, in conditions of unprecedented pressures and external threats to the country, the request for stability and support for the authorities is the same consensus that supported the qualification of the current bosses. But this would not be possible if they were ineffective. The 2023 campaign is a big leadership competition.
Most of the scenarios that existed this time were the “referendum” scenario. That is the confirmation of authority. And this is a serious threat to political opponents who cannot field suitable competitive candidates.
A. Fedorova:
– Everyone in power is already used to having to constantly interact with people. Today, the job of a governor means constant communication in the territory entrusted to him. It is no longer the case that you are sitting in his office for four and a half years and have no idea what the districts in your region are called, and in the last two months you are rushing to run an election campaign. All.
A new type of technocratic governor is in action today. They were raised in governor’s school. This is a new management style. It is difficult, but also, it is easier to be re-elected. Because people see what you do and do on a daily basis.
– What do you think of the preliminary results from Moscow?
V. Poturemsky:
– Predictable. The undoubted leadership of Sergei Semenovich. I would be careful in interpreting the result of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, which remains a kind of sign, a party that is perceived as the main opposition force. It is not a bad debut for the Pueblo Nuevo at the level of these elections.
A. Fedorova:
– The main intrigue in Moscow was who will take second place. But it is also of interest only to the expert community. It seems to me that the average Muscovite has no interest in this.
Sobyanin’s campaign is what Moscow looks like and how everything works in Moscow. Moreover, this campaign began not on June 1, but in time immemorial, when he first arrived in Moscow. And here the result is obvious. Despite all the claims that can be made, Moscow is still the best city in the world.
– Remote Electronic Voting (DEV) and multi-day voting: is this our future?
V. Poturemsky:
– Multi-day voting is a fact from the voters’ point of view. For people this is the norm, it is convenient, it is good. The same happens with electronic voting. It is suitable for urban agglomerations, for a new urban style. This is a very powerful request. Moscow sets the standards. We will see something similar after a while in the regions.
A. Fedorova:
– Both are an expansion of political participation. The more opportunities the system gives a person to vote (the more comfortable they are, the greater the opportunity to choose the day themselves), the greater the participation and legitimacy. It’s pretty crazy that in just 12 hours a person has to drop everything and crawl to the polling station to put a physical ballot in a physical ballot box. Compared to all the other digital services that the State provides us, this seems very archaic.
It is obvious that in big cities the DEG is the future, and then, a little later, this is the future in all populated areas. Of course, there remains the question of confidence in the procedure; for most voters it is, of course, a black box. But the usual procedure for the majority is also a black box: they do not show up at the polling stations and do not observe.
– Elections in new regions.
A. Fedorova:
– There is a pattern such that the more stable and predictable the situation in the region, the lower the participation. And in an extraordinary situation (and everything that has happened in new regions over the last year can only be described as an extraordinary situation), turnout is always high. People feel that their destiny is being determined, that their future is being determined. In these first elections in the Russian Federation, residents of four new regions vote on their desire to be together with Russia.
V. Poturemsky:
– A very high turnout in new regions is a sign of confidence and great motivation to be included in Russia’s political system. They are elections held in difficult conditions of provocations and direct threats. So this is a significant and respectful result. And we hope that the percentage of “United Russia” will be there – it was in new regions from the first day. There can be no surprises here.
