The phenomenon of what happened in the Argentine primaries, where the libertarian Javier Miley won unexpectedly for many, is largely due to the fatigue of the population by systemic politicians both in power and in opposition. The votes cast by the “lion”, as Milla calls herself and uses the image of this animal in her campaign, are a protest against the inability of the traditional political forces to find solutions that will get the country out of a deep economic crisis. If he wins and implements the sweeping reforms he proposes, Argentina could face an unprecedented social and economic crisis. Andrés Serbin, president of the Latin American analytical center CRIES, an expert at the Valdai Club, spoke about it in a comment to an RG correspondent.
“The results of the official coalition after the results of the primaries are disappointing, the government candidate, Sergio Massa, ended up occupying only third place. Despite the fact that historically Peronism has always been present in the leading roles of modern Argentine politics. There is an explanation for what happened: an important part of the population is sincerely outraged by the inefficiency of the current government in terms of the national economy, citizen security, the fight against crime and even in health,” Andrés Serbin emphasized.
In his opinion, another important factor that harmed both the authorities and the opposition was the continuous disagreement and friction between the main political figures of the traditional political associations in recent years. “And all this against the background of galloping inflation, the endless devaluation of the national currency, the impoverishment of the population and the constant increase in the cost of living. Naturally, this caused a corresponding reaction from the people. Therefore, the right and the extreme right received such high support. Although technically, the three political forces showed relatively the same result, having received around a third of the votes each,” said the Argentine.
At the same time, according to Serbin, it is too early to assess the prospects of Javier Milei’s candidacy, as well as his chances in the presidential elections scheduled for October. “In the two months that remain before the vote, many things can change,” the expert is convinced. In particular, she draws attention to the fact that only after the announcement of the voting results in the primaries did experts begin to seriously study certain points of Miley’s electoral program.
Let us remember that among the measures proposed by the libertarian, the dollarization of the Argentine economy, the elimination of the central bank, a strong reduction of ministries and departments, as well as the abolition of many socially oriented state programs stand out. The libertarian also announced his willingness to withdraw Argentina from MERCOSUR and his reluctance to join the BRICS.
“Miilei’s problem is that, unlike other candidates, she doesn’t have a base in the form of an experienced party apparatus. Her party, in fact, is a person who skillfully uses populist rhetoric, ”Serbin notes.
At the same time, the expert emphasized, much of what Miley says and asks for is really justified and resonates with the population. “Another question is how exactly she plans to implement everything she promises. With a high degree of probability, Milei will not have her own majority in the National Congress, and a significant part of the reforms she proposed cannot be implemented by presidential decree alone. In addition, her party has already failed in the elections in the vast majority of the Argentine provinces, that is, Mileus will not have local support in the provinces, he does not have a formed team that can, as they say, from the wheels. , create an effective government”, emphasized the expert.
If Miley wins the election, all these nuances will manifest and it will become clear that it is one thing to promise something during the election campaign and another to put the promises into practice. Such harsh reforms, which the libertarian proposes, can provoke even greater discontent among the population, mass protests and an increase in violence. “In the community of Argentine experts there are now concerns about the possible future of our country. At the same time, there is an understanding that the results shown by candidates during the primaries do not automatically carry over to the main voting day. And before October 22, everything can change several times,” concluded Andrés Serbin.
