According to Sergey Suverov, investment strategist at Arikapital Management Company, it is likely that in the near future the dollar will rise in price to 95 rubles, and the euro to 103-105 rubles.
The national currency continues to weaken in the context of a worsening trade balance and a significant outflow of capital, he explained.
“In addition, there is a significant increase in the ruble money supply in Russia. Finally, the tax period is over. A combination of factors predetermines the probability of a further weakening of the ruble, but the Russian currency may be supported by an improvement in the situation with the budget and an increase in the key rate by the Bank of Russia,” Suverov said.
BCS Mir Investments investment strategist Alexander Bakhtin said that there is currently a temporary drop in the ruble exchange rate, which, in his opinion, will be fleeting.
“While the Russian currency remains weak, as the current account balance worsens, state budget spending increases, due to geopolitical and locally, in light of the end of the July fiscal period,” Bakhtin explained. In addition, there has recently been a strengthening of the global dollar (the DXY index returned above 102 points) and a general deterioration in risk appetite. The BCS investment strategist is sure that closer to the fall, the position of the ruble can improve with the increase in oil prices and the reduction of the price differential between Brent and Urals.
According to Bakhtin, the priority scenario until the end of August contemplates the strengthening of the ruble below 90 per dollar and below 100 per euro. “In support of this, the oil price growth factor seen at the end of July should work,” the investment strategist concluded.
