Ruble
Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank:
– For the next week we expect a sideways movement of the ruble and a consolidation of the exchange rate close to current levels. The estimated bargaining range is from 93 to 98 rubles. per dollar, 100-106 rubles. per euro, 12.7-13.4 rubles. for yuan.
From an economic point of view, the trend of the last nine months towards the weakening of the ruble continues. The current supply of foreign exchange from exports is not sufficient to meet the increased demand for foreign exchange for import purchases, vacations abroad, as well as the demand for foreign exchange due to geopolitical, budgetary and inflationary risks.
To increase the attractiveness of ruble savings and reduce demand for foreign currency, including imports, the Bank of Russia sharply raised the interest rate to 12% on August 15. However, it takes several months for this factor to fully materialize in the economy.
Therefore, for the time being, other administrative measures are used to stabilize the ruble exchange rate – informal agreements with exporters to increase the sale of foreign exchange earnings.
According to media reports, the authorities have ordered exporters to maximize the flow of foreign currency earnings to their accounts in Russian banks and to increase foreign exchange sales. As of August 21, exporters must report weekly to the relevant departments on the volume of repatriated foreign currency earnings and their sales.
If there are risks of a further weakening of the ruble and exceeding the dollar mark of 100 rubles. We hope that the authorities will take the additional measures announced: the return of the compulsory sale of exporters’ foreign currency earnings, the tightening of restrictions on capital outflows, the ban on the payment of dividends and loans abroad, the ban on grant loans to foreign business units. and, in extreme cases, an additional key rate increase up to 14-15%.
Oil
Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of the Zenit bank:
– Oil prices during the week managed to reverse the negative trend, despite continued pressure on the entire segment of risky assets. The return of fears about global oil demand brought another set of weak statistics on the Chinese economy. Additionally, the dollar is strengthening noticeably against most currencies, which is traditionally a negative for the oil market. Investors awaited the speech by the head of the US Federal Reserve at the annual symposium. Fears of tougher rhetoric from the Federal Reserve are strengthening the dollar and hurting the outlook for energy demand as the global economy slows.
US industrial statistics turned out to be neutral. Commercial oil inventories for the second week in a row fell much more than expected, but gasoline inventories rose and US oil production rose to a 3.5-year high.
Despite the lack of growth drivers, oil prices are rising. OPEC+ oil supply reduction is likely to hedge the risks of a reduction in global demand for the time being. In the event of a downward correction of the dollar in the world market, the cost of oil could continue to increase until reaching values of 84-86 dollars per barrel of Brent.
Exchange
Alexander Bakhtin, Investment Strategist at BCS World of Investments:
– The Russian stock market spent the past week mostly on the sidelines. Towards the end of the five-day trading period, investor activity almost froze. Both the approaching weekend, in conditions of an ambiguous information background, and the absence of significant movements in the ruble exchange rate and oil prices, had their effect.
With demand delayed from the end of this week and potentially weaker due to the end of the tax period, the ruble may (absent a pronounced negative effect over the weekend) stimulate growth early next week with targets above 3200 points. the index of the Moscow Stock Exchange. The relatively stable oil prices, the high dividend yield of the Russian market and the return of companies to disclosure of information speak in favor of maintaining the upward trend in the medium term. For example, we expect Aeroflot to resume publishing its IFRS financial statements next week.
The information landscape in the near future promises to be saturated. SPB Stock Exchange will increase Hong Kong stock trading time from Monday; now they will end at midnight and not at 18:00 Moscow time. Until the end of August, we are waiting for a whole series of reports from Russian companies: financial results according to IFRS for the second quarter of 2023 will be presented by Sovcomflot, Segezha Group (Monday), Samolet, AFK Sistema, Globaltrans, TCS Group. , LSR, Polyus “, “RusHydro” (Tuesday), OK, “Phosagro” (Thursday).
Of the important statements in the US market, we highlight the quarterly results of Broadcom and UBS Group, which will be published on August 31. Investors will also continue to monitor key statistical releases and markers. On Tuesday we highlighted the economic forecasts for the EU and the US: the Consumer Confidence (CB) index for August and the number of open vacancies in the labor market (JOLTS) for July. Midweek, US statistics will be back in the spotlight: the change in the number of people employed in the non-farm sector over the past month (according to ADP), an estimate of quarterly GDP.
Thursday will be rich in statistical data: in China the PMI indices in the services and manufacturing sectors will be released, in the eurozone – a preliminary estimate of the growth rate of consumer prices in August, in the United States – data on consumer spending. From Friday’s information we highlight the report on the labor market and the PMI indices for the United States.
