The electoral campaign for the elections on July 23 began this Friday and, with it, the political parties launched to kick off these two frantic weeks with the presentation of their electoral proposals. Within this list of promises, in the economic section is Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the leader of the Popular Party (PP), the one that the most listed on the Ibex 35 would benefit from its star measures.
Although the approaches are different between the four main bet formations (PSOE, Sumar, PP and Vox), which range from promoting the electric vehicle to the promotion of a tourist Perte, as well as promoting the construction of a public housing stock or accelerate the energy transition, each of the formations directly or indirectly favors a specific group of sectors. However, in the specific case of the political formation based in Genoa, it would be the one that the firms that make up the Spanish stock market reference would get the most out of.
According to the report ‘The impact on the stock market of the 2023 general elections’, prepared by the XTB platform, the activities they propose would have a positive impact on up to a total of four that make up the selective. The National Water Pact, which seeks to promote investment in water infrastructure in terms of sanitation, regulation or supply, may have an impact on companies such as Sacyr or Acciona through their water divisions.
The tourism sector is another of the legs on which the ‘popular’ “propose to grow sustainably.” Through the implementation of a tourist Perte – a constant claim within the sector since the pandemic – they contemplate the modernization and rehabilitation of strategic destinations, projects that put Meliá and IAG in the spotlight. To these would also be added NH Hoteles, which is not part of the select group.
The two aforementioned hotel companies would also benefit from the PSOE’s plans, which include a plan to promote the modernization of infrastructures through the Recovery Plan thanks to a package of 3,400 million euros. Likewise, XTB analysts believe that in the event that the Socialists revalidate power, the future executive could continue promoting policies that seek to encourage electric mobility after the recent deduction of 15% approved in personal income tax for those people. buy an electric car, which could translate into a positive impact for Gestamp and Tesla.
In this sense, it would harm important companies within the Ibex 35 such as Repsol, as well as nuclear energies, among which Berkeley stands out, whose uranium project in Salamanca has been paralyzed by the Ministry of Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge. In the event that Feijóo is the one who arrives at La Moncloa, the focus of uncertainty would be on distribution companies such as DIA and Carrefour, since their margins can be conditioned by the reinforcement of the position of the producers in the negotiation, as well as in stocks such as Solaria or Acciona Energía, since a victory for the right-wing bloc could stop the development of clean energy facilities.
“The proposal to stop the sudden closure of industrial and energy plants to protect jobs, as well as the refusal to accept supranational impositions, can slow down the pace of the energy transition towards a more ecological model”, they point out from the aforementioned br Oker. This positioning of Vox, the formation led by Santiago Abascal, is accompanied by the need to align the Defense budget to make it more in line with that of other European countries, targeting Airbus and Indra, in addition to liberalizing the soil as a solution to tackle the access to housing that is suffered in Spain. If it materializes, the promoters would be the ones that would experience the greatest increase in activity.
In the case of the proposal put forward by the other end of the political arc -Sumar- to allocate up to 1% of Spanish GDP to housing policies, it would be construction companies such as OHLA that would experience a greater flow of activity, while their proposal to convert the permanent tax on electricity and banking, puts these two sectors back on target, which have seen the results of the first quarter of the year conditioned by this tax. Despite this, Joaquín Robles, an analyst at XTB, emphasizes that investors “seek a stable legal framework and a solid government, before which economic stability will prevail.”
The Ibex can fall up to 3% the day after 23-j
The Spanish stock market reference accumulates an annual revaluation of 12.4%, with data at the close of the markets this Monday, up to 9,252 points and, although in two weeks the panorama can be altered by multiple factors, the statistical evidence already shows that the sessions after July 24 will not be positive. Since the creation of the Ibex 35 in 1992, nine out of ten days after the elections have been held, with average declines of 2% and 3% when the elections have led to a change of power.
To this is added the appointment on monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) just in the following days. In the case of the former, the possibility that it will resume increases after the June break is still a mystery, while the Frankfurt-based agency has already announced that it will carry out another increase, predictably of 25 basis points. The selected will reach the last day of July with multiple factors that can alter his trajectory and put at risk the 9,300 points that would further delay his recovery to the levels prior to the coronavirus pandemic.
