Geopolitical tensions will continue to be the main concern of the markets this week, with strong uncertainty about the possible consequences on stock prices of the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East due to the recent attacks between Israel and Iran.
In addition, this week several indices will be published that investors will have to keep an eye on, such as the preliminary purchasing managers data (PMI) of the main economies corresponding to this month of April or the estimate of the US GDP in the first re .
Víctor Álvarez, the head of Variable Income at Tressis, has pointed out several key moments of the week beyond the geopolitical risks, which include the presentation of business results for the first quarter. The PMI for services and manufacturers, the German Ifo, or the US PCE will also be known, which may have an influence on the estimates of the Federal Reserve (Fed).
In any case, Álvarez has highlighted that regardless of the geopolitical context, when markets suffer gains like those of recent months, corrections follow, which is what is happening in the markets. In Europe, this Monday, the 22nd, the highlights will be the consumer confidence data in the euro zone for April, the monthly report from the German Bundesbank, the Rightmove housing price index in the United Kingdom and the holding of the auction of French debt at 3, 6 and 12 months.
On Tuesday the 23rd, the composite, manufacturing and services PMIs will be published in the euro zone, France and Germany, and in the latter country a 2-year public debt auction will also be held.
This week in Germany one of the points of interest focuses on the comparison that day of the president of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, as well as business expectations, the current situation of the country and the Ifo business confidence index.
A new 10-year public debt auction will take place on Wednesday the 24th, and a day later, on Thursday, the Gfk consumer climate index for May will be released. On Friday the 25th, attention will turn in Europe around consumer confidence data from France, the unemployment rate in Spain and retail sales.
Among the business results for next week, in Spain, those of Iberdrola, FCC, Acerinox, Ebro Foods and Renta 4 stand out on Wednesday; as well as those of Repsol, Indra, Mapfre, Banco Sabadell, PharmaMar, and Cellnex, on Thursday, among others.
The week in the US and Asia
In the US, the week will begin with the holding of a 3- and 6-month public debt auction, while on Tuesday the PMI data, new home sales, Redbook retail sales and Richmond manufacturing indices, debt auction will arrive. public for 2 years and the weekly crude oil reserves of the International Energy Agency (API) will be known.
On Wednesday the mortgage market index, durable goods orders, crude oil imports will be published and a new 5-year public debt auction will be held.
A day later it will be the turn to know the renewals of unemployment benefits, the quarterly GDP, personal consumption expenses, the index of homes pending sale, and there will be an auction of 4-week debt, 8-week bonds and 7-year debt, in addition to knowing the reserve balances in the Federal Reserve banks.
The last day of the stock market week will be used by the US to publish the PCE price indices and the inflation expectations of the University of Michigan and the number of Baker Hughes oil platforms will be known. Added to all this will be the numerous business results that will be presented in this country, among which those of Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft, Visa and Boeing, among others, stand out.
In the Asia-Pacific Region, next week’s macroeconomic references include the decision on the cost of money from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), as well as the manufacturing PMI for the Japanese economy.
Monday will be the PBoC prime lending rate day, while Japan’s PMI will be released on Tuesday, and two days later, on Thursday, foreign bond purchases and the country’s leading indicator will be released. On Friday, the Tokyo CPI will be published and the BoJ’s monetary policy will be decided. Finally, the Chinese YTD industrial profit will be known on Saturday.
