From the beginning of the agricultural season (July 1) to August 16, Russia exported 9.1 million tons of grain, of which 2.4 million tons – during the period of the grain agreement (until 18 July), Eduard Zernin, president of the board of the Union of Cereal Exporters, told RG. According to him, today’s export rates are higher than before July 18. Thus, 6.8 million tons of wheat were delivered to foreign markets compared to the 3.85 million of last season. For the grain, the export rate is almost 90% higher than last season. It is true that then it was the time of the tougher sanctions barriers, Zernin notes.
The leaders in the growth of wheat imports of the top ten countries are Bangladesh (3500%) and Yemen (1700%).
“This is not just a low base effect, we are returning these markets in the next season,” says the expert.
The leader in the import of Russian grain crops remains Saudi Arabia – 1.25 million tons were delivered there. Türkiye bought the largest amount of Russian wheat – 850 thousand tons. But Iran was removed from the list of wheat buyers.
“None of the exporters is willing to continue with the deliveries until the problems of the state trader GTC with the debts for deliveries from the previous season are fully resolved,” explains the expert.
Iran remains among the top five grain importers (690,000 tons) only thanks to the supply of feed crops to private buyers, who, unlike state buyers, observe more or less payment discipline, Zernin said.
Photo: Infographic “RG” / Anton Perepletchikov / Tatyana Karabut
According to Bloomberg, Russia’s port capacities are now operating at their limits: the country has never exported so much grain before. Last year, the country harvested a record high of almost 158 million tons, 30% more than in 2021.
The market perceived the exit of the grain agreement quite calmly: real world prices hardly reacted, although exchanges “played”, says Dmitry Rylko, director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR).
“A much more agitated reaction accompanies military actions in the water zone or on the Black Sea coast, as they can drastically increase the risks and restrict navigation, and for both sides. And this is already a very serious factor.” , said.
In this context, the prices of Russian wheat rose from about 240 to 250 dollars per ton, although in recent days they have “dropped” again by 247 dollars per ton. At the same time, difficulties have increased in hiring and insuring a fleet of ships for the transport of Russian grains, both by bonfires and by transoceanic ships, the expert points out.
Further price dynamics will depend mainly on two factors: military-geopolitical and sectoral. For the first factor, it is difficult to predict anything. But if there are excesses, the price will surely rise. As for the grain market, there are currently no incentives to increase prices: the supply on the world market is high (for example, from Russia), says Rylko.
At the same time, grain exports are also expected to be impressive in the new season: according to the head of the Ministry of Agriculture, Dmitry Patrushev, Russia will be able to export 55 million tons (60 million tons last season, including 47 million tons). tons of wheat). But this is not the final figure: the harvesting of the spring crops is still underway and, consequently, exports may turn out to be even higher. For example, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its August review raised its estimate of Russian wheat export potential to 48 million tons (excluding Crimea).
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has the most conservative estimate of the grain harvest so far: 123 million tons, including 78 million tons of wheat. While market pundits are raising their forecasts with might and main. Therefore, the latest ICAR estimate is 139 million tons of cereals, including 89.5 million tons of wheat. According to Rosstat, the areas cultivated with winter and especially spring wheat are larger than expected, and in some regions the yield is higher. It is possible that the new FSIS accounting system “Zerno” will also play a certain role, the launch of which contributes to the legalization of shadow volumes, Rylko explains.
