The meat industry is one of the five fastest growing industries, according to NielsenIQ. In 2023, meat sales, after stagnating in 2022, increased in volume by 3.8% and sausage sales by 4.4%. At the same time, average prices in both groups increased by only 2% compared to 2022. Sales of not only chicken, but also all other types of meat have increased in monetary terms. For example, beef showed the highest growth rates and increased its share of sales, surpassing turkey. Half of the sausage segments showed double-digit growth rates.
From poultry meat, the increase in demand extended to pork. The general director of the National Union of Pig Breeders, Yuri Kovalev, explains this primarily by the growth in income of the population (including low-income people), mainly in the regions. He was also influenced by the fact that pork prices grew less compared to other food products. And the reduction in the price difference between poultry and pork generates an additional flow of demand towards pork. Additionally, due to limited supply and high prices for chicken, meat producers are switching to “pork-intensive recipes.”
In 2023, meat sales increased by 3.8% and sausage sales by 4.4%. And meat production increased by 2%.
Although meat production in Russia grew last year, it was difficult to meet demand. In total, 11,433 million tons of carcass weight were produced, 2% more than in 2022, the information and analysis agency Emeat calculated for RG. At the same time, the volume of production of livestock and poultry for slaughter (in live weight) compared to the 1990 figure, the maximum value during the USSR, increased by 5.6%, highlights the Ministry of Agriculture.
Admittedly, this was mainly due to pork, which added 4.9%. Investment projects started several years ago continue to reach their designed capacity. Beef production also increased by 1.8%. But in the case of poultry there was a slight decrease in production: 0.1% (or 6.1 thousand tons by slaughter weight). In addition, according to the National Union of Poultry Farmers (NSP), poultry exports in January-November 2023 increased by 7% (more than 22 thousand tons).
Unlike pork, in the last five years there have been no new projects in poultry farming and all growth is achieved only by rebuilding existing enterprises, explains NSP General Director Sergei Lakhtyukhov. Additionally, in 2023, some sites in border areas were affected.
However, the expert assures: although national production has decreased minimally, at the end of last year there was sufficient industrial supply of birds on the market. This was helped by imports, which in 11 months of last year immediately increased by 29%, up to 206.3 thousand tons.
Even turkey, whose production increased by 25% over several years, grew only 4% in 2022 and 1% in 2023. The reason is rising costs. Since turkey meat is already twice as expensive as chicken, there is a risk of switching to cheaper meat. Some turkey producers have begun to convert their facilities for chicken production, according to a study by the National Qualification Agency.
The Ministry of Agriculture expects the positive dynamics in the industry to continue in 2024, the department told RG. This is facilitated by state support measures, the ministry believes. Thus, livestock farmers receive preferential “short-term” loans for the purchase of cereals, flour, premixes, vitamins and amino acids, as well as preferential investment loans for the construction, reconstruction and modernization of livestock production facilities, including feed factories. and workshops, as well as for the purchase of equipment for them.
Photo: Infographic “RG” / Alexander Chistov / Tatyana Karabut
According to Emeat forecasts, meat production in 2024 will increase by 2-3%, up to 11.6-12 million tons. But apparently this year the industry will once again rely on pork to meet growing demand. According to the National Union of Pig Breeders, it will be possible to produce between 6% and 7% more pork (between 300,000 and 500,000 tons of live weight). We can also expect an increase in beef of 2-4%. But the bird will be in the red again, around 1-2%, estimates Emeat CEO Lyubov Savkina.
This year an increase in poultry production seems to be expected. But due to the decision to remove tariffs on chicken imports in 2024, companies are revising these plans downwards, Lakhtyukhov said at the Prodexpo exhibition.
The question is what the Russians’ appetite will be in 2024 and how exports will develop. According to Rosselkhozbank estimates, this year the record for meat consumption will be broken again and will amount to at least 83 kg per person per year, that is, it will increase by about 3%.
According to the Federal Agro-export Center of the Ministry of Agriculture, in 2023 Russia exported almost 22% more meat: 743.5 thousand tons compared to 611.9 thousand tons in 2022. In 2024, pig farmers hope to increase exports, in particular due to the long-awaited opening of the Chinese market. The minimum plan is to send 20,000 to 30,000 tons of pork there already in 2024. Then you can aim for the maximum plan: according to Kovalev, Russia can almost double its pork exports, from 255 thousand tons (in 2023) to 500 thousand tons and occupy a place among the five main world exporters of pork.
