Director of Work of the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion with Government Agencies Kirill Rodin
Photo: Andrey Minaev. Go to Photobank KP
THE MARKET IS IN SHOCK
– Kirill, you have prepared a large study called “Barometer of the industry and market of passenger cars in Russia”. So, what is happening in the Russian car industry now? How do experts assess the market situation? What does the barometer show?
– I think that today we are living in a unique time. We can say that due to the difficult external socio-economic situation, the market is, to a certain extent, in a state of shock and upheaval. During a period of such significant turbulence, the consumer undergoes a rather deep and serious reappraisal. It may sometimes be forced (you have to put something together), but it happens. And the existing stereotypes of perception in people are beginning to change.
An interesting opportunity, a unique window for a domestic manufacturer, is opening up right now. It will not be open for a long time, but it is already slowly closing. However, today we are in a state where this “window” exists, even in the minds of consumers. And we can try to find some niches, consumer requests and unique opportunities that will allow the Russian automotive industry to take its rightful place in the market.
Honestly, it is rather difficult to make predictions on this matter. Because the actions of a Russian car manufacturer are not always clearly predictable. Will the domestic car market take advantage of this opportunity or not? This is a question not even of the distant future, but of the very near future, when you and I will understand: either this happened and a segment really appeared that is beginning to grow and gain momentum, or everything is slowly stagnating or continues to deflate as before.
– Let’s talk more about this window. For whom and for what purpose was it opened? What exactly could Russian car manufacturers get?
– The Chinese manufacturer “bombs areas” (relying on the mass buyer – Ed.), finds its customer quite quickly. If we approach the topic of emerging opportunities in more detail, then we will have to talk about deeper research in the classroom. Because every job has its own tool. The same goes for a car. For every audience, for every peculiarity, there is a good technique.
We know that there are definitely fans of the domestic automotive industry. These are quite large audiences. After all, today about a third of our drivers drive domestic cars.
And these audiences have specific locations. For example, in connection with the development of special equipment, including those that can operate in the Far North, etc. Unfortunately, few people know, but today domestic manufacturers produce a huge amount of equipment that operates in harsh conditions.
There are other audiences that should not be underestimated. For example, hunters and fishermen, who also have their own, very specific technological preferences. They are largely focused on the Russian automotive industry.
Generally speaking, if we want to talk about its revival, this means working with more subtle and niche local requests. They already exist, you just need to master them.
And if we talk about a broader scope, on a federal scale, then this, of course, is a fight against the existing giants, taking into account the existing perceptions of consumers. When we conducted the research, we asked ourselves the question: what kind of car would Russians like to drive today? And Japanese cars took the first place, although now their presence on the market is limited. Next come Russian and European brands, and the Korean car industry has moved from third to fourth place (for more details, see “Just the numbers”).
In any case, today we see that the mood, demands and interests of consumers are shifting and changing. And the window of opportunity I am referring to is due to the fact that these changes, which from an industrial perspective would rightly be called tectonic shifts in the consumption habits of the population, create opportunities. Which we use or do not use. But, I repeat once again, from my point of view, this window will not be open for long. Because new consumption habits will soon develop. And such a convenient situation to start gaining market share in whole portions, from my point of view, may not be repeated very soon.
“NO MARKET SHOULD BE FORMED BY NEGATIVE MOTIVATION”
– Personally, I still don’t see any smart steps on the part of Russian manufacturers that would help them conquer the market. Instead, they are trying to implement bans, to achieve an increase in the recycling fee for foreign cars… Of course, this can discourage part of the audience from buying imported cars. But this is not enough.
– I don’t want to say that in the current market situation, the domestic manufacturer is gradually starting to lag behind… But it is clearly not winning the competition. At least it is not taking advantage of all the opportunities. But it is impossible to form a market based on negative motivations. It must be formed on the basis of demand, on positive motivation. We will not achieve anything global by prohibitions.
It would be more correct to actually find your consumer. And gradually turn him into that loyal customer who, when asked “what kind of car would you like to drive,” confidently answers that he is choosing a domestic car. Which, from the point of view of individual niche requests, has many advantages. Related, for example, to working with fuel that is present in remote areas or to maintainability. There is an audience of motorists who can hold a wrench in their hands and use a hammer. On the part of these people, this request really exists. And consumers constantly emphasize these qualities when they talk about what is important to them when choosing a car.
The North Caucasus is also a traditionally stable buyer of domestic cars. There are other large segments where we could outperform the competition. For example, the more we “shift” to rural areas, the more consumers we see of products from the domestic automobile industry.
But can we expand this niche? This is a question for those ideologues who are responsible for the development of this entire segment today. It would also be interesting to interview them as experts and perhaps organize a similar debate on the Komsomolskaya Pravda platform. And let’s talk about how these perspectives are seen not only by the public opinion, but also by manufacturers, managers and the production organizers themselves. Understand to what extent public demand today coincides with the strategy that the captains of this industry have set for themselves.
BETWEEN THE PAST AND THE FUTURE
– How has the state of the industry changed over the years?
– It changed due to the socio-economic milestones that the country went through. We had the “crazy 90s” and many consumers chose the “little red nines”. Then came the 2000s, when we began to actively import cars from Europe and the Western automotive industry emerged. And there is a current milestone when we have become more open to Asian markets.
Today, in my opinion, we are witnessing revolutionary changes in this market. And we must honestly say that this revolution is not led by the domestic automotive industry, but by the Chinese one. Here, in the Far East, the situation is somewhat specific, but if we go out on the streets of Moscow, we will find that Chinese cars are appearing like mushrooms after the rain. New brands of the Chinese automotive industry in Russia are multiplying faster than we can remember these cars. This is an alarming sign for the Russian automotive industry.
– And how exactly can our automotive industry react to this signal?
– We simply work with niche requests. If we want to spectacularly walk past a nightclub, we will probably opt for Italian manufacturers. And if we need to go hunting or fishing, their equipment will be useless. These are niche requests. When we begin to study the market in more detail, we immediately begin to find answers to many questions. We even start a dialogue with those consumers who today expect the revival of the domestic manufacturer.
– Does the consumer expect more individualized treatment?
– I think so. Do you remember the famous meme on social media, depicting a UAZ – “loaf”, produced in 1965 and which has not changed to this day? They say that stability is a sign of skill; the design was so perfect that nothing could be added or removed. But when we talk about fine-tuning, this “stability” has a downside.
The same meme about the “ideal” UAZ
In the modern automotive industry, changes are occurring not only in terms of the service provided by the car (I’m not even saying anything about the fact that it actually drives itself, the main thing is not to interfere with it). But also in terms of the types of energy it runs on: whether it’s “electric trains”, gasoline or diesel.
That is why today, when we talk about tuning, the consumer is already very spoiled by them. And if our automotive industry wants to meet specific demands, we must talk about this fine individual adaptation to the needs of customers. This is not always because the system needs to be more complex. Sometimes it should be simpler: as they say, it is more convenient to hammer nails with a hammer than with a violin. And if we want to win the competition, to further differentiate the marketing and promotion strategy of the domestic automotive industry, we must delve deeper into research and understand what demands we need to meet.
Because today the situation looks more like we are starting to shoot at the market by relying on a system of general bans. Therefore, it is likely that competition will be lost in the market within the next three years. And after this time, if we act in the same way, we will see that the changes that have only just begun in the market today will most likely become irreversible.
– What are your forecasts for the development of the industry?
– I would limit myself to my expert opinion here. If the current processes continue, I think that the Chinese automotive industry will most likely capture the Russian market.
How much market share will the Russian car industry retain? I would be careful with quantitative characteristics, because the market situation is now very fluid. But we saw that the Chinese are starting to make a revolution in our market, taking back those segments that were previously reserved for Europeans and Japanese, and at a more aggressive pace than the domestic manufacturer is doing. This is an established fact. Whether this situation will change or not, I do not know. But if everything continues in the same way, those segments that were previously owned by our former foreign partners will pass into the hands of the Chinese car industry, not ours.
NUMBERS ONLY
Which country would you like to buy a car from?
Japanese – 36%
Russian – 33%
German – 32%
Korean – 22%
Chinese – 14%
American – 6%
European (except German) – 4%
According to the Russian telephone poll “VTsIOM-Sputnik”, conducted on March 24, 2024. 1,600 Russians aged 18 and over took part in it.
