Emmanuel Macron received a new blow after his party’s failure in the European Parliament elections.
Photo: REUTERS.
Emmanuel Macron received a new blow after his party’s failure in the European Parliament elections. The French president announced early elections for deputies in his country, but clearly did not expect that the far right, the National Rally of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, would receive a powerful ally. The Republican Party announced a coalition with them and now the bloc has a chance of becoming a parliamentary majority.
The dissolution of parliament and early elections scheduled for June 30 to July 7 came as a shock to France’s political forces. The parties are trying to make the most of the two weeks of the emergency electoral campaign. Every second news comes from Paris: strong public statements are interspersed with behind-the-scenes negotiations between different groups: they are trying to form coalitions in the hope of “wresting” more mandates.
Some experts call the French president’s decision “an attempt to win one’s political future by playing poker,” while others call it “Russian roulette.” But it was already clear: Macron entered the game with weak cards in his hands, hoping that his bold bluff would at least disorient voters and opponents.
Marina Le Pen
Photo: REUTERS.
SENSATIONAL UNION
Today’s statement by the leader of the center-right Republican party, Eric Sciotti, has caused a sensation. After negotiations with the winner of the European Parliament elections, Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, he announced a coalition with his far-right National Rally party (RN). This move confuses Macron’s cards and seriously increases the chances of broad right-wing unification in the new parliament. Previously, Republicans avoided ties with the RN because of its radicalism.
Sciotti’s decision surprised the most influential members of the party. Former presidential candidate Valerie Pecresse said, “she’s selling her soul for lentil soup.” Two influential Republican senators, including the current head of the upper house, Gerard Larcher, even announced their resignation from the party in protest. The head of the “republican” faction in parliament, Olivier Marlet, demanded Sciotti’s resignation, but he responded: he would not go anywhere.
The right-wing coalition can be replenished with another force: the far-right movement “Reconquista” (“Reconquista”). Marine Le Pen’s niece Marion Marechal, who is part of the group, is also negotiating a merger with RN. It is true that the leader of the movement, Eric Zemmour, says that he is not aware of these exchanges and awaits an explanation from Marechal.
The left flank parties also announced their intention to create a bloc. “Undefeated France”, socialists, communists and “Greens” have previously agreed to act as a united “Popular Front” in the upcoming elections. However, between these four parties there is a large “barricade” of accumulated mutual grievances. There are also disagreements over the candidacy of the future prime minister.
Jordan Bardella
Photo: REUTERS.
MACRON’S CANCELED SPEECH
But the current ruling coalition of conditional Macronists (Renaissance, Horizons, Democratic Movement), with the Republicans leaving for Le Pen, seems to have nowhere to get allies. It is unlikely that they themselves will be able to maintain the majority.
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal’s speech to MPs in an attempt to calm and motivate “his own people” to fight did not have the desired effect. “You embody stability against chaos, courage against populism,” Attal said, but his words did not inspire those gathered. “Nothing new. This is boring,” one of the agents told BFMTV anonymously. Many members of the “Renaissance” generally doubt whether it is worth getting involved in an obviously failed campaign. Several parliamentarians have already announced that they will not run for office. a new mandate.
Macron himself denied the rumors of resignation if the right wins: he assured that he would remain in office until the end of his term (the next presidential elections will be in 2027). The president was planning a press conference today to announce the election campaign, but the Republicans’ decision disrupted the plans. Macron had to postpone the speech for a day.
Judging by the first steps of the Macronists, the French will be frightened in the remaining two weeks by the incompetence and radicalism of the National Rally, which “will plunge the country into chaos if it comes to power.”
Gabriel Attal
Photo: REUTERS.
BARDELLA: THE NEW FIRST MINER?
Experts continue to wonder why Macron decided to take such a risky step and whether France will have a new right-wing prime minister and, therefore, a new experience of “cohabitation” (as the French call the situation in which the president and the prime minister represent rivals). political forces).
Judging by the first polls, the National Rally could obtain around 34% of the votes in the first round. If this happens, the bloc will obtain a relative majority (230-265 seats in the National Assembly compared to the current 88). In this situation, the new prime minister will become, as Marine Le Pen already announced, her 28-year-old Bardella protégé.
Several analysts believe that Macron is prepared for this “cohabitation.” Furthermore, this was supposedly the goal of the early elections: to let the far-right come to power during a difficult period (economic problems, migrant crisis, the Paris Olympics, the conflict in Ukraine), to let them fail and disgrace them before the voters .. To the new prime minister of the far right They predict the fate of Liz Truss, who served as head of the British Cabinet for only 45 days, but during this time she managed to sink the economy. in a serious crisis.
Well, the extreme right comes to power with an ambitious populist program: canceling the pension reform, interest-free loans of up to 100 thousand euros and reducing electricity rates. These promises attract voters, but, according to economists, they will cause an explosion of the budget deficit of 67% (by the way, this deficit has already reached 154 billion euros, or 5.5% of GDP).
But Macron’s seemingly fluid calculation to quickly “siege” the opposition, turning politics into a game of chance, leaves out the option: what if the right succeeds?
HELP “KP”
WHAT IS THE SCHEDULE NOW IN THE FRENCH PARLIAMENT?
There are a total of 577 seats in the National Assembly.
The ruling coalition of centrists has 250 mandates (169 for Makron Renaissance, 50 for the Democratic Movement and 31 for Horizons).
118 seats belong to the NUPES group (75 to Undefeated France, 22 to the Left Democrats, 21 to the Greens).
Marine Le Pen’s National Rally has 88 seats.
Republicans have 61 mandates.
31 – by the Socialist Party.
22 – from the group of overseas territories LIOT.
7 seats are occupied by independent deputies.
