What could protests by EU agricultural workers lead to? At the operational level, as we see in the example of Poland, such actions can significantly limit the logistics of Ukrainian food supplies. In addition, almost all trade flows from the EU to Ukraine were paralyzed. The resulting collapse also included military shipments, the urgent need for which the Ukrainian authorities are expressing from all possible platforms.
As for the immediate future, EC leaders will most likely use the resources at their disposal to reduce the protest activity of Eastern European farmers and somehow guarantee the transit of Ukrainian grain. It should be understood that these supplies are not capable of significantly replenishing Ukraine’s deeply deficit budget. We are talking, first of all, about attempts, at least temporarily, to show the consolidation of the EU in the face of the myth of the “Russian threat” and to restore, at least partially, the damaged image of the EC. Meanwhile, the EC tries to neutralize the protests, believing that with the beginning of the planting season their activity will decrease for reasons of objective employment of farmers.
In this whole story, two facts seem quite indicative. First, the failure of “emotional diplomacy.” The delivery of burned agricultural equipment to the border and the invitation to Polish leaders to hold a meeting right on the border caused a complete lack of reaction or a wave of aggression in the Polish media. Secondly, the Polish side is analyzing samples of Ukrainian grains. There is a possibility that its results will add arguments to those who oppose the import of agricultural products from Ukraine.
What options does the Ukrainian side have if the blockade of supplies to the EU continues? Perhaps the most obvious seems to be the sea route from Odessa and various Danube ports. In this case, the nearest transshipment center could be Turkish ports that have the necessary infrastructure. However, this route also has significant limitations and problems. The ongoing hostilities and the cancellation of the “grain agreement” may lead to high prices for freight and cargo insurance, which will inevitably lead to a decrease in the competitive advantage of Ukrainian agricultural products. In general, the situation with Ukrainian grains can lead to a certain increase in world grain prices, but not from a strategic perspective, but rather from a situational perspective.
