Azerbaijan began gathering troops in Karabakh in early September.
Photo: NOTICIAS DEL ESTE
What is happening in Nagorno-Karabakh?
On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijan announced that it had launched a “local counterterrorism operation” in Karabakh. Its army began to carry out selective attacks with missiles and drones against military targets: air defense, electronic warfare and checkpoints in the region. Whose objects are these is a very interesting question. Because Yerevan immediately declared that there was no Armenian army in Karabakh. But at the same time, Armenian authorities believe that Azerbaijan has begun an “aggression”; There are not only air attacks, but also a ground advance of the line of contact in order to carry out “ethnic cleansing.”
Perhaps the targets of the Karabakh armed forces were attacked? According to the agreement between Baku and Yerevan after the “second Karabakh war” in 2020, they should not exist. The “destruction of the military infrastructure of the illegitimate regime” was the official reason for the operation, according to the statement by the assistant to the president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev. At the same time, images of injured children after Azerbaijani attacks are published in Stepanakert. Although the Internet in the region is practically cut off.
What about the Russian peacekeepers?
There are 2,000 Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh. They must not participate in hostilities on anyone’s behalf. Their task is to guarantee peace and humanitarian corridors in the region. “Our blue helmets do not have the right to use weapons until their lives are threatened,” explained Andrei Kartapolov, head of the State Duma Defense Committee.
There are 2,000 Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh
Photo: NOTICIAS DEL ESTE
Baku said it had warned Russian peacekeepers about the start of the operation. However, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova responded that this warning came only “a few minutes before the missile attacks.”
What preceded the aggravation in Nagorno-Karabakh?
Azerbaijan began gathering troops toward Karabakh in early September. And at that time, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan gave interviews in Western media that he “could no longer trust Russia as the sole guarantor of Armenia’s security.” That trusting Moscow in the military sphere was a mistake for Yerevan. Negotiations carried out with French President Macron. Pashinyan’s wife managed to fly to kyiv to attend an anti-Russian forum organized by Zelensky. And, as an apotheosis of all this, the Armenian army began joint military exercises with the United States. They’re coming right now! Although the Armenian authorities refused to hold CSTO exercises on their territory this year. That is, the Armenian army has no time for Karabakh at the moment; They are carrying out maneuvers with the Americans.
And Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was giving interviews to Western media at the time.
Photo: REUTERS
In Baku, of course, they could not help but notice the pro-Western bias of the Armenian authorities.
What is Azerbaijan’s interest?
Azerbaijan’s goals on the surface are to take full control of Karabakh territory and disarm its army. It seems that this is exactly what Baku is achieving with its “local operation.”
The second task is to build a road and railway through Armenia to its enclave, Nakhichevan, which is separated from the main territory of Azerbaijan. This road would lead directly to Turkey, which is even more important to Ankara than to Baku. But this goal is unlikely to be achievable at this time.
“The anti-terrorist operation has nothing to do with the Armenian territories,” said Hikmet Hajiyev, assistant to the president of Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan’s goals on the surface are to take full control of Karabakh territory.
Photo: NOTICIAS DEL ESTE
What does Armenia want?
Here it is worth separating the desire of the Armenians and the goals of their current authorities. It is clear that the Armenian people would like peace in Karabakh and prosperity in Armenia. The Yerevan government, judging by its political measures, dreams of getting rid of Karabakh as an unnecessary burden and setting sail for the West. It is no coincidence that the Ambassador General of Armenia, Edmon Manukyan, said: Now it is the turn of the United States to decide what measures to take to stop the military attack (from Azerbaijan – Ed.).”
Armenia is now too weak militarily
Photo: NOTICIAS DEL ESTE
Will there be a big war in Nagorno-Karabakh?
This is not currently in the interest of any of the parties to the conflict. Except, perhaps, one: the United States and Great Britain. The arguments are simple:
Armenia is now too weak militarily compared to Azerbaijan. A major war could end for her with the loss not only of Karabakh, but also of her own territory.
A quick and selective operation is now more profitable for Azerbaijan than a protracted war. Otherwise, you risk being subjected to Western sanctions. And the laurels of the victor of the short Karabakh war of 2020 will lose their shine.
Türkiye no longer has time for a fire in the South Caucasus. There are too many problems in Syria, the Kurdish regions, Libya, the Black Sea (Ukraine gives surprises every day) and in the Turkish economy itself.
Russia is busy demilitarizing Ukraine.
The United States and Great Britain are the beneficiaries of the opening of a “second front” for Russia in its most vulnerable part. Georgia was prepared for this role, but this time its authorities resisted and did not allow their country to become a “second Ukraine.”
Pashinyan, it seems, could not resist.
And he took a big risk. Thousands of angry Armenians gathered in Yerevan on Tuesday shouting: “Nikol, resign!”
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