An attempt by NATO countries to attack Kaliningrad could be the beginning of a big war.
Photo: Viktor GUSEYNOV
On July 11 and 12, Vilnius will host the NATO summit, which has already been declared “historic”. The main theme will be Ukraine. But considering that Lithuania is home to the leaders of the Western military bloc, there is no doubt that the Kaliningrad “problem” will also be discussed. Why the West is so concerned about the existence of the Russian enclave, what it can do about it, and how we should respond to it: Nikolai Mezhevich, political scientist, president of the Russian Association for Baltic Studies, professor in St. Petersburg. University, helped KP solve these problems.
– There is a constant concentration of NATO forces around Kaliningrad, why is this being done and what can it lead to?
– After the accession of Finland to NATO, and then, probably, after all, Sweden, the military-geographical encirclement of the Kaliningrad region will be completed. 15 thousand square kilometers – the area of the Kaliningrad region – is, of course, difficult territory to defend. Even if the enemy has one for two of your tanks. There is no geographical depth of defense here.
How can this be stopped? Tactical nukes only. Whether it exists in the Kaliningrad region or not, we do not know. But the fact that it already exists in the Republic of Belarus is a fact. An attack on the Kaliningrad region can be carried out, most likely, with the understanding that a global conflict will follow. Or, at least, a regional conflict in which certain circles in Poland and the Baltic States, mainly in Lithuania, are interested.
Recent events, including those related to a PMC, testify: the assumptions of Vilnius and Warsaw politicians that the Republic of Belarus will be on the sidelines, let’s face it, have not been confirmed. This creates a clear understanding among our neighbors that their actions against the Kaliningrad region can be read, and this is already clear, as a possible entry into the conflict of Russian or Belarusian troops from the territory of Belarus. Then the famous domino principle will begin to work, which is known to all employees of the operational departments of the General Staff: they touched some village in the Kaliningrad or Brest region, and it all ended in a global world catastrophe.
– Do our opponents understand this?
I would venture to assume so. If I remember correctly, there have been no serious provocations against the Kaliningrad region so far. Reconnaissance aviation flights, attempts to approach territorial waters and airspace – everything is there. But to fly on the base of the fleet shamelessly, I do not remember this. Not because they are so peaceful, no. They just perfectly understand the degree of responsibility for possible violations.
– However, the situation around Kaliningrad is escalating, the latest example being the announced plans to deploy 4,000 Bundeswehr soldiers to Lithuania.
– More concerned about the new Polish motorized division than four thousand Germans. The Germans knew how to fight in the past, but there will be a certain problem here. Discipline, oath – all this is great. But I don’t know how to explain to the Germans why they should die if Lithuania or Poland provoke a provocation against Kaliningrad.
– Is the issue of Kaliningrad stated in the West at the level of doctrinal documents?
– All documents related to the military conflict with Russia provide for the liquidation of the Kaliningrad enclave in the first place. Relatively speaking, before thinking about St. Petersburg and Moscow, the task is set – to ensure non-obstruction of Kaliningrad.
– Does the issue of the Suwalki corridor arise solely as a scarecrow horror story that helps NATO justify concern and the presence of a threat? Or does the military take this factor into account?
– I graduated from the Faculty of Geography, not the Academy of the General Staff. But Captain 1st Rank Pavel Grigoryevich Sutyagin, a military intelligence officer, taught us there. Among those veterans, it was not very common to talk about what they did during the war years, but he touched on those things that are related to our topic. He said that it is possible to go through a corridor to some strategically important object, but then two problems arise, instead of one: holding the object itself and holding the corridor. As he participated in defensive and offensive operations related to Norway in the Northern Fleet, he knew what he was talking about. Regarding Kaliningrad, I think the answer is clear. The broker does nothing. Here it is already necessary to take the entire Baltic or somehow defend against the threat directly from the territory of the Kaliningrad region.
– If a corridor opens, then to block the Baltic states …
– Then the question arises, if we take the Baltic States, why in such an exotic way? There are still a sufficient number of armed forces through this corridor, and the equipment cannot be brought in quickly. And the ports of the Baltic states, according to our strategic-military game, which we play with you, have not been taken. What is the point? We want to cut off the supply of NATO equipment to Riga, but we have the Riga port in the center of Riga. That is, NATO tanks can be unloaded directly at the presidential palace.
And most importantly, the most important thing to finish. They are trying to provoke us into a military conflict in this region. And that is exactly what we must avoid. We want to stretch the front to the Baltic. And why do we need it? Why is it clear to them? Your task is to drag us into a difficult conflict, to expand the front to the model of 1942, 1943 or even 1944. If we achieve victory in Ukraine effectively and beautifully, the Russophobic regimes in the Baltics will not immediately stop being Russophobic, but they will quickly become civilized: since the Russians have taken care of Ukraine, then maybe we will be a little calmer, a little softer, a little more careful, a little more smiling with them?
– The Lithuanians themselves practically do not hide their territorial claims to the Kaliningrad region.
– But they have a certain problem: both Lithuania and Poland have claims to Kaliningrad. I think there are attentive people in Berlin who are very surprised by these statements.
– Can the “Kaliningrad problem” be detonated in the near future?
– I am not suggesting a deliberately planned military conflict by NATO in this region. I proceed from the fact that there can be a kurtosis of the performer. The pilot flew in the wrong direction, the gunner fired in the wrong place. And the depth is 15 thousand square kilometers. It’s easier in Siberia – I hit there, fell somewhere, and it’s not clear what’s next.
– That is, here the price of any error can be fatal?
– Certainly.
Photo: Dmitry POLUKHIN
Possible options for the development of the conflict with the West
At the request of KP, political scientist Alexander Nosovich named possible options for the development of a conflict with the West over the Kaliningrad region.
First option
– The first scenario, the most obvious and most probable, is a new traffic blockade of Kaliningrad. It is already incorrect to say of him that he now moves freely, but those drops that filter through Lithuania can be stopped by the voluntaristic decisions of Vilnius. We are talking about freight transit and, what is more important, passenger transit. We still have quite large groups of the population who travel to “Great Russia”, as the inhabitants of Kaliningrad call their country, and from there by train. Here, Lithuania and Brussels always have the opportunity to stage a provocation. It is enough to open the EU sanctions packages, point at any point, say that it applies to transit from Kaliningrad. It is quite possible that it will seriously violate the agreements between the European Union and Russia, on the basis of which Lithuania joined the EU 20 years ago.
Second option
The second scenario, the probability of which is also increasing all the time, is a military accident or military provocation during NATO military exercises. Given the speed at which NATO contingents are growing around the Kaliningrad region, the likelihood of such a confrontation and provocation is increasing. Simply due to the fact that with such a concentration of troops on both sides of the border in a reduced space, it is more than adequate to assume that there is contact between them. And NATO exercises are taking place in the Baltic one after another. It is possible that some Polish rocket will fly towards the south of the region. And after that, games will begin about whether she accidentally flew there or not by chance. Few people in Russia now pay attention, but in Poland, for several months now, a series has been going on with a rocket that was found in the Bydgoszcz region, this is practically the Russian-Polish border. The missile apparently flew off as a result of some Polish exercises. Now a commission specially created by the Poles has established that this missile is Russian, that it most likely hit Poland from the territory of the Kaliningrad region, this missile could kill someone. No conclusions are yet drawn from this, but this series continues.
The Poles, and to a lesser extent the Lithuanians, may report some kind of hostile attack from Kaliningrad. Against some military or paramilitary groups. And then prove that there was no invasion.
Third option
The third, most radical scenario, which was also expressed last year by official Estonia in the person of its Foreign Minister, about the blockade of the Gulf of Finland for Russia. Then the Estonian Foreign Ministry publicly stated that as a result of Finland’s entry into NATO, American HIMARS will appear near Helsinki and Tallinn, and then they will be able to block Russian ships, preventing them from leaving the Gulf of Finland towards open sea. This is a blockade of both St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad. This more radical variant of the development of events is not ruled out. And this is directly – casus belli. The attempt to turn the Baltic Sea into a “NATO sea”, as they said, leads to only one thing – to open clashes.
