The experts and managers of the PwC Economic and Business Consensus predict a growth of the Spanish economy of 2.1% by 2023 and a slowdown in the rise in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 1.6% in 2024, three tenths less than to their previous estimates.
The Consensus reflects a deterioration in the opinion of the panelists about the economic situation now and in the coming quarters. Thus, we estimate that the year 2024 could be a year marked by the cooling of the Spanish economy.
The loss of fuel from domestic demand and exports would be behind this slowdown in activity, which would close the year with a growth of 1.6%, as predicted by the Economic and Business Consensus, corresponding to the fourth quarter of 2023 that it prepares. PwC since 1999, based on the opinion of a panel of 450 experts, businessmen and managers.
The report reflects the drop, by almost twenty points compared to the last report – from 50.5% to 32.6% -, of respondents who rate the current situation as good, while they rise in an almost identical proportion, up to 61.2%, those who consider it regular. Regarding how the activity will evolve within a year, a majority of 53.1% predict that it will get worse.
The majority (76.3%) of experts, businessmen and managers justify this brake on the fact that the expected demand will not be enough to increase production. And, according to forecasts, families are going to moderate their consumption in the next six months, but the most significant stoppage will be experienced by home purchases, which will decrease, according to 74.7% of those surveyed.
On the part of companies, the determining factor will be the impact that the deterioration of the main foreign markets on exports will have on activity.
They expect rates to remain at 4.5%
For their part, those surveyed who say that the economic and financial situation of the companies is regular grow by ten points, to 53.1%, and those who believe that the prospects for foreign markets rise from 13.7% to 46.5%. . They are unfavorable.
In this sense, 43.4% assure that productive investment will decrease in the next six months, 37.4% say the same about exports, and 55.6% expect a slowdown in job creation. .
Another aspect that will affect the evolution of the economy in 2024 will be the evolution of interest rates, since the majority of respondents predict that they will remain at 4.5% in June of next year. However, in December 2024, 53.6% believe that the price of money could be between 3.5% and 4%.
Regarding inflation, respondents expect it to move parallel to interest rates, and only anticipate changes for December of next year, when it could be between 2.5% and 3%.
Energy model
The panelists that make up the Consensus agree with the European Union’s efforts to promote the transition towards a low-carbon economy and the fight against climate change.
Only 6.9% believe that the EU’s emissions reduction targets “make no sense because it is not proven that climate change is related to the burning of fossil fuels.”
Another question is whether the objectives set are too ambitious and the pace of decarbonization is adequate. 40.2% of those interviewed believe that they are difficult to achieve, but that they will be achieved with great sacrifices and 37.2% say that they will be a great blow to European industry and will be modified.
Probably, the idea that best fits reality is the one endorsed by 52.9% of those surveyed who are in favor of assuming the decarbonization objectives, but ask the community authorities for longer and more realistic deadlines to be able to adapt the industry and the technology.
The report also addresses the effects that the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East may have on ecological awareness. The answer with the most followers has been that it will accelerate this concern because “the high price that Europe pays for its energy vulnerability vis-à-vis Russia or the Arab countries has been demonstrated.”
Few, only 14.7%, point out that once the conflicts are resolved, the trend will be to continue with fossil fuels, “which are cheaper.”
The Consensus asks whether it makes sense to maintain public aid linked to fossil fuels, while also subsidizing renewables.
nuclear debate
Regarding the nuclear debate, the division of opinions dominates the responses on whether it should be favored or not (31% against and 26% in favor). Of course, 48% agree with the European Commission’s criterion of considering it as non-polluting energy because it barely produces carbon dioxide emissions during its production, only 31% disagree with this statement.
Finally, experts, managers and businessmen (53.9%) are proud that Spain is at the global forefront of renewable energies and almost half believe that it will be a legacy for new generations.
They also agree that companies are taking measures regarding sustainability, although they believe that greenwashing is still frequent and ask regulators to be clearer in their regulations.
