Ruble
Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank:
“In the next week of shortened trading, we expect sideways dynamics of the ruble and consolidation of the exchange rate near current levels. The expected trading range is 90 to 94 rubles per dollar, 97 to 102 rubles per euro, 12 .4 to 13 rubles per yuan.
The factors contributing to the strengthening and weakening of the ruble remain balanced.
In favor of the ruble are the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings for the largest exporters (with the possibility of extension after April 30), high oil prices, which are approaching this year’s highs, and sales of yuan from reserves as part of budgetary operations. for 8.1 billion rubles. per day and high interest rates in rubles.
Inflation is slowly slowing and risks remain that the Bank of Russia may agree to a further increase in the key interest rate at its upcoming meetings. Tight monetary policy slows lending and reduces import demand (and currency demand). In addition, the current high rates on ruble deposits – 14-16% per year – support the attractiveness of ruble savings.
At the same time, public spending, which has increased in recent weeks, may be a limiting factor for the strengthening of the ruble and may be used to purchase imports for government needs. “In addition, the increase in demand for foreign currency may be related to the purchase of shares of Russian companies from foreign owners.”
Oil
Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank:
“Oil prices have moved away from local highs. There was no significant news on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which allowed investors to focus on market fundamentals. Fears of a slowdown in global oil demand were put to rest. foreground, as high interest rates in developed countries limit the overall growth of the economy.
Statistics on productive activity in China do not support an increase in oil prices. US industrial statistics are also not encouraging. Commercial oil inventories rose for the fifth consecutive week, while production remained at a record high.
Quotes were supported by expectations that OPEC+ may extend voluntary curbs on oil production into the second quarter. Although the cartel maintains favorable demand forecasts for the current year, the growing supply from countries outside OPEC+ continues to increase.
The short-term outlook for oil appears neutral. The risks of a worsening geopolitical context are unlikely to allow quotes to fall significantly below the level of $80 per barrel for Brent. At the same time, there is also little reason to return to the levels of $83-85 per barrel.”
Exchange
Alexander Bakhtin, investment strategist at BCS World of Investments:
“At the end of February, the Russian stock market managed to offset the fall caused by the increase in tensions due to sanctions, the Moscow Stock Exchange index recovered to the area of 3,250 points, which maintains the possibility of continuing to advance towards the 3,300 points. In addition, the tax period has ended and the ruble may lose ground next week, which may improve confidence in the shares of exporters that dominate the index.
Oil prices are balanced by multidirectional factors and, most likely, will continue to form at the level of more than $80 per barrel Brent in the short term. At the same time, it should be noted that next week in our market will be shortened due to the holiday on Friday. Long weekends are usually a reason to be more cautious.
Over the next week, investors will continue to monitor currency and commodity quotes, corporate news, regulatory signals and key economic statistics.
On Monday, the Moscow Stock Exchange will publish trading volumes for February 2024. Rusagro will present financial statements under IFRS for 2023. The next day the Annual General Meeting of Rosgosstraj will be held and on the agenda is the issue of approval of the dividends. The board of directors of the Moscow Stock Exchange will consider dividends for 2023 on Tuesday and MTS will publish its quarterly financial results. In midweek, RusHydro will publish its IFRS financial report for the fourth quarter of 2023. Polymetal’s Extraordinary General Assembly will be held on Thursday to approve the sale agreement of the Russian business. Yandex shareholders will discuss the restructuring agreement at the meeting.
On March 5, the congress of the National People’s Congress (NPC) will open in China. And on March 7 the ECB will meet; no surprises are expected: the first steps to ease monetary policy will probably not be taken before the beginning of summer. Among the statistical data and important publications of the week, we highlight the February PMI indices in the services sector of China, the eurozone and the United States (Monday), the Beige Book of the Federal Reserve (Wednesday), the GDP estimate of the eurozone for the fourth quarter of 2023 and the labor market report for February (Friday)”.
