The International Energy Agency (IEA) is very clear that the energy transition and the fight against climate change will not be simple. In a report published this Thursday, it is estimated that the world’s energy storage capacity should multiply by six to 1,500 Gigawatts (GW) by the end of the year. Acer supports the goal of tripling renewables in the fight against change. Climate. This is a specific analysis of the battery sector in which this international organization points out that accumulators should account for 90% of the aforementioned 1,500 gigawatts (GW), and the rest would correspond to water pumping installations.
For the IEA, batteries, whose capacity must be multiplied by seven by 2030, are “the key” to the energy transition and the abandonment of fossil fuels, as demonstrated by the fact that, by that year, the fleet of electric vehicles will avoid consumption of 8 million barrels of oil per day, the document highlights. Reducing greenhouse emissions in electricity production and transportation is a fundamental factor in trying to limit the increase in temperatures to 1.5 degrees, and batteries “will be the foundation in both areas,” specified the executive director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Biro
The organization has highlighted that the combination of photovoltaic panels and batteries is already competitive with the new coal-fired thermal plants in India, and in a few years it will be competitive with gas plants in the United States and coal plants in China, the authors highlight. of the study. In this sense, they have pointed out that the deployment of batteries has already begun, in fact, since in 2023 they were the fastest growing energy technology: their use in the generation sector skyrocketed by 130% and added 42 GW of capacity.
Regarding sales of electric vehicles, they have recalled from the IEA, these have reached almost 14 million units, compared to three million in 2020. Thus, at the end of 2023 there was a fleet of nearly 45 million electric vehicles in the world. electricity and 85 GW of storage capacity in the energy sector, when there was 1 GW in 2013. In this sense, the IEA has highlighted that the price of lithium-ion batteries has plummeted by 90% since 2010 and they have multiplied their energy densities and their duration.
Falling price of batteries.
The IEA has estimated that the cost of lithium-ion batteries will fall an additional 40% from 2023 to 2030 and will continue to fall further. Furthermore, the entry into service of solid-state batteries will offer the potential for “huge” gains in terms of performance. This drop in price will allow electricity generation facilities with photovoltaic panels and wind turbines, associated with batteries for storage, to be used increasingly intensively and thus favor the deployment of renewables, which will triple worldwide by 2030. .
These cheaper and more efficient batteries will make the cost of electric vehicles progressively more competitive compared to those equipped with combustion engines, insists the IEA. However, the agency has announced that to sevenfold the capacity of batteries installed worldwide by 2030, it will be necessary to increase the extraction and supply of strategic minerals such as manganese, lithium, graphite and nickel, which will have to be multiplied by six. , while that of cobalt will have to be tripled. Still, advances in reducing battery size will allow demand for critical minerals in 2030 to be 25% lower than that of previous devices.
The authors of the report advance that China, the world’s largest producer of batteries, will reduce its dominance by 2030, when it will concentrate around 66% of the world, as Europe and the United States increase their manufacturing capacity. In parallel, the United States and Europe will reach 2030 with approximately 15% each in global battery production and the capacity to meet their domestic needs.
