The latest monthly report on the oil market from the International Energy Agency (IEA) foresees a lower global demand for crude oil than anticipated for the year 2023. This drop in expectations would be justified by not having met the recovery objectives of the economy. expected and the lack of activity in the European industrial market.
Updated IEA figures would put oil consumption this year at an average of 102.1 million barrels per day. Despite exceeding the data from previous years, with 2.2 million barrels more than in 2022, if these estimates are met, 220,000 barrels per day would be consumed less than what had been calculated the previous month.
The difference in demand between 2023 and the previous year corresponds almost entirely to higher consumption in countries outside the OECD. In fact, more than 90% of this increase would be explained by the markets of developing countries. Specifically, China would be the largest consumer, representing 70% of this increase in demand.
Russian crude could overtake Saudi oil
Specifically, the Asian country will absorb 1.6 million barrels per day more than in 2022, which highlights the effect of its opening after two years of covid restrictions. For its part, in the OECD, and in particular in Europe, the lesser economic dynamism will lead to a contraction in demand for four consecutive quarters, between the third of 2022 and the third of 2023.
For 2024, the IEA has corrected its projections upwards compared to those made last month (290,000 more barrels per day), and expects that world demand will progress by 1.1 million compared to that of 2023. This correction is explained because its experts Above all, they expect higher diesel consumption in China and more positive global economic prospects in the long term.
Regarding the offer, the agency emphasizes that the cuts that have been applied in Saudi Arabia and some of the producers of the OPEC+ cartel since November have been almost completely covered by other countries. In June, extractions increased worldwide by 480,000 barrels per day to 101.8 million, mainly due to the recovery of part of Canada’s production, which had fallen due to forest fires and maintenance work.
Last Month Oordta Was Only 70,000 Barrels A Day Less Than October 2022, Just Before The Opec+ Cuts, And That Thanks To Supplemental Contributions From Iran (Which Is Not Worried About Adjusting The Oil Cartel Although It Is A Member ), from Kazakhstan, Nigeria or the United States.
However, the agency warns that the amount of crude that goes on the market could fall by more than a million barrels a day this month if Saudi Arabia applies the scissors again. If that materializes, Saudi extractions would remain at about 9 million barrels per day, its lowest level in two years, below that of Russia, which would go on to occupy the first position in the OPEC+ bloc.