Poland is strengthening the protection of the “Suwalki Corridor”, a strip of land between Belarus and the Kaliningrad region under Polish jurisdiction.
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How can the “Polish factor” unexpectedly affect the subsequent course of the special operation? We talked about this on Radio Komsomolskaya Pravda with the Vice President of the Russian Academy of Rocket and Artillery Sciences, Doctor of Military Sciences Konstantin Sivkov.
THE WEST WILL NOT BREAK THE NAVAL BLOCKADE
Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has launched a naval blockade of Ukraine, and how can they respond to this?
– The blockade is not carried out by the fleet, but by the entire Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Missile attacks are carried out, this is long-range aviation, including, in addition to the fleet. And as long as we don’t sink other people’s ships with guns and we don’t lay sea mines. But they warned that this could happen.
– What are the likely consequences?
– We are on strike at port infrastructure facilities. They can’t help it. The West supplies Kiev with air defense systems, but we are also destroying these anti-aircraft missile systems, such as Patriot, NASAMS, IRIS-T destroyed earlier. When the basic infrastructure of ports is destroyed, it makes no sense to send merchant ships to these ports. Ships have a large draft, and the destruction of the mooring front in the same Odessa leads to the appearance of various obstacles at the bottom, which can lead to the destruction of the bottom of the ship.
– That is, are the measures we are taking sufficient?
-Pretty much. And they will not be able to counter this.
THE POLISH FACTOR
– Poland is strengthening the protection of the “Suwalki Corridor”, a strip of land between Belarus and the Kaliningrad region under Polish jurisdiction.
– The liberation of the Suwalki corridor for the movement of all necessary goods and goods in Kaliningrad can be implemented if the West suddenly decides to organize a naval blockade of the Kaliningrad region. They have already organized a land blockade. The air blockade is partly the same. Only the naval blockade remained.
– What if they fix a naval blockade, then…?
– We will have to unlock the western Russian region. We will be forced to solve the problem of access to Kaliningrad through the Suwalki corridor. It must be understood: the declaration of a blockade or the creation of a blockade without declaring it is considered, under international law, an act of military aggression.
– In this case, how do we act?
– As a defender. And on a full basis, we can carry out those actions that should be considered defensive in both military-strategic and military-political terms. International law operates with the concepts of the political-military essence of hostilities. Breaking the corridor through Suwalki is a defensive action to unlock the region of the Russian Federation.
What if the Poles decide to send troops to the territory of western Ukraine?
– The entry of Poles into the territory of western Ukraine is viewed ambiguously both by the leadership of the Russian Federation, and even by Ukraine itself, not by the political leadership, but by the military leadership of Nezalezhnaya. After all, the Ukrainian Armed Forces seem to be fighting for the integrity of their country. And if the Poles invade the west independently, aren’t they called aggressors, in the opinion of the Ukrainian army command?
Will Ukrainian generals have to choose between Poland and Russia?
– Yes, and it is not known which side they will take. This is a very serious problem, especially for Ukrainian nationalists. They understand that the Poles will definitely deal with them in full, remembering the Volyn massacre. But how ours will deal with them is a difficult question. We have demonstrated a relatively high level of loyalty. During the prisoner exchanges, even several commanders of the Azov banned in Russia were released. And, do not be surprised, at some point it may turn out that the transition to the side of Russia, paradoxical as it may seem, will be more acceptable to the national battalions – in the event of a Polish invasion of Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk – than suddenly to be on the side of Poland.
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