Russian exports to hostile countries will triple compared to 2021.
Russian exports to hostile countries, as well as imports of goods from these countries, will decrease three times by the end of this year compared to 2021. And by 2030, the decline in imports and exports will increase fivefold. These forecasts were announced by the Center for Strategic Research (CSR).
Recall that the list of countries hostile to Russia includes more than 50 states. These are EU countries, USA, Canada, Japan, Australia.
It clearly looks like this: in 2021, the export of goods and raw materials to hostile countries (then these countries were still considered more or less friendly) accounted for more than 50% of our total exports. And at the end of this year it will be only 16%. As for imports, they represented 26% of total imports. At the end of this year, only 7%.
The government warned: Russia will respond to Western sanctions and restrict trade with hostile countries, so that they, in turn, will also suffer economic losses. The result was immediate.
As Tatyana Gorovaya, deputy director general of the Center for Strategic Research, noted, “the pressure of sanctions led to a qualitative and comprehensive reassessment of the country’s foreign economic priorities.” Russia has redirected its main trade flows towards the East. According to experts from the Strategic Research Center, the volume of exports to India during this time increased almost 3.5 times. Exports to Azerbaijan increased by 27%, to China by 15%, to Turkey by 15% and to Iran by 7%. Imports of goods from these countries are growing. Thus, Chinese products in our market increased by 35%, Turkish products by 17%, and products from Southeast Asian countries by 26%.
Recently, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said that Russia intends to increase cargo volume and build convenient logistics routes with friendly countries, including the EAEU and CIS, the Middle East, Africa, Asia and Latin America. According to him, there are all possibilities for this.
Russia’s main export items in the coming years will continue to be oil, coal, gas and petroleum products. Among imports, mineral products will occupy the largest share. But, according to experts, Russia will buy fewer agricultural products abroad. This is facilitated by the growth of our agriculture.
Previously, statistics on the European Union’s economic losses due to its own sanctions were provided by the Russian Foreign Ministry. According to Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko, the trade turnover between Russia and the EU in 2024 will drop to $50 billion and in the following years will tend to zero. By comparison, if there were no sanctions, trade turnover between Russia and the EU could reach $700 billion this year. The Foreign Office estimated the EU’s total losses due to reduced trade with Russia at $1.5 trillion. It is no coincidence that the leaders of some EU countries, including Hungary and Croatia, openly stated that sanctions cause almost more harm to the EU itself than to Russia.