This year a record summer is expected in terms of clearances and expenses, it will be the definitive year to lock down the health crisis that uses the coronavirus and seriously affected sectors such as tourism. In this way, tourism GDP in real terms will grow by 6.5% in 2023, standing at 4.1% above the level of 2019, while for 2024 a more moderate growth of 1.5% is expected, being 5.7% higher than the pre-pandemic, according to a report by CaixaBank Research.
In addition, by country of origin, the study estimates that domestic demand grows 0.4% in 2023, already showing a lower margin of growth compared to 2022 -when it already recovered 2019 levels-. For their part, international tourism will rise by 11% and, for the first year after the start of the pandemic, will recover the levels of 2019. Looking to 2024, CaixaBank Research expects international tourism to be the main driver of growth in the sector, supported in the recovery of long-distance tourism.
“We expect the headwinds to kick in, especially towards the end of 2023 and through 2024, the year for which we expect more moderate tourism GDP growth,” the study said. Even so, the report highlights that the tourism sector will continue to enjoy some growth levers, such as the recovery of long-distance markets or the resilience of European tourism demand in Spain thanks to the high competitiveness of the destination.
Three factors influencing the sector
However, CaixaBank Research points out that it is likely that in the coming quarters several factors will gain relevance that will significantly moderate the growth of the tourism sector.
In the first place, it highlights the “complicated” macroeconomic panorama in the countries of origin of international tourists: the cumulative drop in real wages in 2022 and the tightening of financial conditions will limit the growth capacity of European tourists in the face of 2024, something we are already seeing in British tourism.
Another notable factor is the reactivation of the most distant destinations for European and Spanish tourists, tourist spending by Spaniards abroad is still far from 2019 levels, according to data on Caixa Bank card payments, and is expected see a recovery in the coming quarters. Lastly, the report warns of competition from cheaper destinations, since Spain’s main driving markets in the Mediterranean are proving to be very competitive in the current environment of high inflation and falls in real wages, as is the case of Turkey and Morocco.
UK interest in traveling to Spain drops
Interest in traveling to Spain fell hard in the United Kingdom in June, standing 12.5% below its reference level, according to CaixaBank Research. The poor macroeconomic performance of the country, the sharp rise in rates and the weakness of the pound sterling are being a strong condition for British tourism. Additionally, the data from other tourist destinations such as Turkey, Greece and Portugal suggest that they are more competitive when it comes to capturing British demand, which is causing an additional brake.
However, the study highlights the interest of EU tourists in traveling to Spain, which is resisting remarkably, and in the first five months of 2023 it stands at 4.6% above its reference level. They stand out above all the Italians and Dutch, with records of 3.3% and 15.2% above the reference, respectively. The indicators for France and, above all, Germany show more weakness and point to a relatively more fragile macroeconomic situation.
On the part of US tourists, there is a normalization of interest in traveling to Spain at pre-pandemic levels, which “anticipates very good arrival figures for the summer.” This indicator also points to strong growth in interest in traveling to Spain in Japan, standing 22.6% above the reference period.
